UK Economic Data Releases This Week May Offer Clarity on Growth, Rates, and Inflation
• This week's economic data releases, especially Tuesday's labor market and pay figures, may provide clarity on the direction of the UK economy and implications for interest rates and inflation.
• There is uncertainty around the reliability of recent unemployment data, but November's Labor Force Survey could provide revised estimates.
• Pay growth seems to be slowing but remains too high relative to productivity to be consistent with the 2% inflation target.
• Inflation could edge down in Wednesday's data release but unlikely to show major improvement; however, the inflation rate could fall markedly in April as base effects drop out.
• Friday's retail sales figures for the important December month will indicate if consumer spending is weakening, adding to recession and interest rate cut arguments.