Commodity Calm in 2023 Could Give Way to Supply Shocks in 2024
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Commodity markets are currently calm despite global tensions, with prices down 10% in 2023 after years of increases.
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Supply levels are higher than in the late 2010s for many commodities like oil, gas, grains, and metals, making markets more resilient to shocks.
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Three potential surprises could disrupt markets in 2024 a sharp economic rebound boosting demand, bad weather hurting supply, or military conflicts hampering trade flows.
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Freakish weather would especially impact European gas and global wheat markets, while conflict in the Middle East could cause oil price spikes.
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Extreme events have blindsided markets repeatedly this decade, so the potential for chaos like $200 oil still lurks despite the current sense of calm.