Housing Market Faces Multi-Year Thaw Before Revival, Says Economist Who Predicted 2008 Crash

Economist Gary Shilling predicts a "considerable revival" in housing activity, but says it will take 3-4 years for the market to unfreeze due to high mortgage rates and low inventory.

Shilling accurately predicted the 2008 housing crash and says high mortgage rates now are causing a "lock-in effect" where homeowners don't want to give up their low rates.

Other experts say lack of housing supply is the main driver of high prices, and interest rates need to fall along with lower construction costs to increase supply.

Housing market recovery will be geographically uneven based on local policies around zoning, construction incentives, and overcoming NIMBYism.

Some experts argue the market isn't truly frozen, just facing low inventory levels and pent-up buyer demand, representing a "new normal" to adjust to.