Analyst Outlines Three Possible Economic Scenarios for 2020s, With Roaring 2020s Boom Most Likely
-
There are 3 potential economic scenarios for the 2020s according to analyst Ed Yardeni a booming "Roaring 2020s" (60% odds), an inflationary 1970s-style scenario (20% odds), and an asset bubble like the 1990s dot-com boom (20% odds).
-
The most likely "Roaring 2020s" scenario involves strong economic growth, low inflation, rising wages, and huge stock market gains due to productivity-enhancing technologies like AI and robotics.
-
The "1970s" scenario involves surging inflation due to geopolitical conflicts affecting oil and shipping prices, forcing interest rate hikes and recession.
-
The "1990s" scenario sees the Fed aggressively cutting rates, fueling a tech stock bubble, eventual inflation, and an eventual crash like early 2000.
-
Yardeni sees "lots of fun for stock investors" in the likely "Roaring 2020s" outcome or the tech bubble of the 1990s scenario, but investors would "do very badly" in a recessionary 1970s outcome.