S&P 500 Rally May Fade as Recession Warnings Mount
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S&P 500 had a big rally last week on the back of declining Treasury yields, but economic warning signs suggest it may not last.
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Sahm recession indicator was not triggered yet, but could be soon. History shows recession likely within 6-9 months of indicator.
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Multiple metrics point to potential recession starting in late 2023 or early 2024.
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Average S&P drawdown from recession warning to trough is -32.5%. Model puts fair value around 2821.
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Many sectors rallied last week but still couldn't flip trailing stop loss positive, would fade bounces.