UK Economy Stagnant as Marginal Q4 Contraction Meets Technical Recession Definition
• U.K. GDP expected to show a 0.1% contraction in Q4 2022, meeting the technical definition of a recession • However, the declines are marginal, describing the economy as "stagnant" rather than in significant recession • Household consumption and retail sales notably weak towards end of 2022 • Forecasts show 0.7% U.K. growth in 2024 after slight contractions in early 2023 • If January inflation cools as expected, could spur calls for Bank of England to cut interest rates to support economy