Posted 3/19/2024, 9:30:00 PM
Recession Odds Climb to Over 76% as Yield Curve Flashes Warning Signs
- Odds of a US recession in the next 12 months continued rising over the past 6 weeks, now at over 76%
- Recession probability bottomed at 67% end of November 2023, nearing a "double top"
- Probability ticked up as Treasury yield curve inversion deepened since December 2023
- Prolonged high Fed Funds Rate and yield curve inversion made March 2024-March 2025 period 2nd most likely for recession
- Recession probability based on model factoring 10yr-3mo spread and Fed Funds Rate level
