Leading Indicators Point to Likely Recession Despite Robust GDP Growth

The ISM Manufacturing Report and industrial production indicate the US may be nearing recession, but GDP and forecasts suggest continued growth.

Leading indicators like the ISM New Orders Index, the yield curve, and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index all point to a likely recession before year-end.

Robust GDP numbers may be inflated by rapid government spending on military, infrastructure, etc. This masks weakness in other areas.

The author believes recession is highly likely before year-end, though it may take months to confirm as data lags.

Unprecedented government spending early in the business cycle may delay recession, but could also cause a debt spiral.