September CPI Report Out Thursday; Expect Moderating Inflation Trends and Stock Volatility if Hotter Than Expected

The September CPI report is scheduled for release on Thursday, October 12. Expectations are for cooling inflation trends to continue.

Consensus forecasts 0.3% monthly rise in core CPI and 4.1% yearly. Headline CPI seen up 0.3% monthly and 3.6% yearly.

Analysts from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America generally expect a 0.2-0.3% monthly rise in core CPI.

Higher-than-expected CPI could lead to stock market declines, as it may signal more Fed rate hikes.

The S&P 500 could drop if CPI is hotter than expected, given the recent bounce and moderately bearish positioning.