Labor Market May Be Tighter Than Thought as Millions of Gig Workers Go Uncounted
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Millions of gig workers may be undercounted in US monthly jobs data, suggesting the labor market is tighter than thought.
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Undercounts could be up to 13 million workers, swinging the adult employment rate by 5 percentage points.
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More hidden informal work suggests the economy has room to grow without sparking inflation.
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Fed officials have lowered estimates of the "natural" unemployment rate needed for 2% inflation from 5-6% to 3.5-4.3%.
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If labor supply is higher than thought, the Fed may not need to raise rates as much to control inflation.