Lower Volatility Signals Modest but Steady Stock Gains Ahead in 2024
• Lower volatility signals stocks are in a bull market heading into 2024
• VIX below 20 indicates bull market; currently around 13, close to pre-pandemic lows
• Stocks expected to see more modest 6-8% returns in 2024 vs strong 2019 gains
• Risk is inflation stays high, forcing more Fed rate hikes which could hit stocks
• Declining bond volatility signals soft landing, not hard recession, ahead