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Declining Treasury Market Volatility Helps Stabilize Crypto and Stocks

  • Volatility in $25 trillion US Treasury market has declined recently, helping stabilize global finance.

  • Lower Treasury volatility supports risk assets like crypto and stocks by easing liquidity conditions.

  • The MOVE index, measuring Treasury volatility, fell to 96, lowest since March 2022 when Fed began raising rates.

  • Declining MOVE index coincided with bitcoin gaining over 8% from recent lows below $25,000.

  • Treasury volatility could spike again if unexpected shock triggers unwinding of large leveraged short positions.

coindesk.com
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Surging U.S. Treasury yields are causing concern among investors as they wonder how much it will impact the rally in stocks and speculative assets, with the S&P 500, technology sector, bitcoin, and high-growth names all experiencing losses; rising rates are making it more difficult for borrowers and increasing the appeal of risk-free Treasury yields.
The recent price pullback in Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market is not surprising, as most risk assets typically suffer when the S&P 500 falls; however, volatility for both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is declining, which suggests mainstream migration and a potential lack of price-pump potential for Bitcoin.
The cryptocurrency market has experienced a notable downturn, with the total market capitalization falling by 10% and triggering significant liquidations on futures contracts, attributed to factors such as rising interest rates, inflation, delays in approving a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), financial difficulties within the Digital Currency Group (DCG), regulatory tightening, and a strengthening US dollar.
Crypto prices, including bitcoin and major tokens, experienced a decline due to profit-taking and a general risk-off environment, erasing gains from Grayscale's court victory, with prices weakening ahead of the U.S. jobs report release.
Bitcoin's price dropped below $26,000 as the approval of a Bitcoin ETF was further delayed by the SEC, reversing the bullish gains from the Grayscale court decision earlier in the week. The crypto market also experienced a decline, with Ethereum's price going down by 3.5% and the overall market cap losing $11.2 billion. However, Maker and Toncoin managed to resist the bearish trend with positive gains. The global macroeconomic landscape also added to the uncertainty, as key economic data raised doubts about a potential interest rate hike.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing low volatility, which typically leads to further declines, with support expected at a certain level.
The recent decline in the price of Bitcoin has raised concerns of a larger market downtrend, with Ethereum and Ripple also at risk of falling if Bitcoin weakens further.
The crypto market is expected to experience increased volatility due to economic events such as the downward revision of economic growth forecasts for the eurozone and the looming FTX liquidation, as well as the release of crucial inflation data in the US.
Bitcoin (BTC) experiences volatility following a higher-than-expected CPI report, with traders wary of the Wall Street open and inflation concerns.
The Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision is expected to have little impact on Bitcoin and traditional markets, with low volatility predicted due to the central bank's data-dependent stance and lack of surprises anticipated.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a rise prior to the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, signaling possible volatility in the market.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a decline after the Federal Reserve decided not to raise interest rates, suggesting that significant gains may not be anticipated in the near future.
The stock market experienced a correction as Treasury yields increased, causing major indexes to break key support levels and leading stocks to suffer damage, while only a few stocks held up relatively well; however, it is currently not a favorable time for new purchases in the market.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing a decline in prices due to a strengthening dollar and risk-aversion, but there is hope for a rebound.
The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates and the possibility of rates remaining higher for longer may have triggered a sell-off in the US equities and cryptocurrency markets, with risk assets typically underperforming in a high-interest-rate environment.
Bitcoin and Ether fell below key price levels as cryptocurrency markets retreated following the US Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates, with more downward movement expected for Bitcoin as it fails to break its 50-day moving average, while Ether's failure to rally above the $1,650 support level could have significant implications for altcoin sentiment.
The recent decline in the US equity market is validating concerns about its lopsided nature, with a small number of top-performing stocks leading the market lower and the remaining companies struggling to make gains, potentially exacerbating losses in a rising Treasury yield environment.
Mounting fears of rates staying elevated for longer sent jitters through global risk assets, pushing U.S. Treasury yields to a peak not seen since the early stages of the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the dollar to a 10-month high.
Stock futures declined and Treasury yields moved higher as belief grows on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve likely will keep interest rates higher for longer.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing a slight increase, but the surging bond yields are causing pressure on digital assets as investors consider the impact of interest rates and Federal Reserve policies.
The US dollar index and government bond yields reached their highest levels in years, causing stocks to plummet and signaling risk aversion in the market.
The recent surge in bond yields, with 10-year Treasury yields hitting levels not seen in over 15 years, is impacting the stock market as investors shift their focus to safer bond investments, which offer higher yields and less volatility than stocks.
The U.S. economy is experiencing turbulence, as inflation rates rise and U.S. Treasuries lose value, leading to concerns about whether Bitcoin and risk-on assets will be negatively impacted by higher interest rates and a cooling monetary policy.
U.S. stocks and bonds are falling due to another surge in Treasury yields, leading to anxiety among investors who fear that the Fed will hold interest rates higher for longer if the labor market remains strong.
Bitcoin's sharp rally on October 1 may have been influenced by a temporary agreement reached by US legislators to avert a government shutdown, combined with the historically strong performance of Bitcoin in October, while the US stock markets are also in a favorable position this month. However, the rising US dollar index could pose a challenge for the bulls in the cryptocurrency markets.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a decline in value following the disappointing launch of a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) and the increase in bond yields.
Wall Street's key indexes dropped as Treasury yields rose to their highest levels since 2007, causing concerns over higher interest rates and leading to a decline in megacap stocks such as Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft.
Utility stocks in the US experienced a sharp decline due to higher bond yields and the Federal Reserve's plan for elevated interest rates, causing investors to find utility dividends less attractive compared to risk-free Treasury yields.
Major cryptocurrencies experienced a decline due to a surge in the U.S. 10-year yield, while interest rates continued to rise driven by strong manufacturing data and the possibility of more rate hikes in the future.
Violent moves in the bond market have sparked fears of a recession and raised concerns about housing, banks, and the fiscal sustainability of the U.S. government, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.8% and climbing steadily in recent weeks, its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.
Bitcoin could potentially face a 60% price drop, as liquidity remains negative and global rates continue to rise, according to Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone. He also suggests that a stock market drawdown related to a recession poses the biggest risk for the overall cryptocurrency sector.
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced decreased volatility as it struggled to push past the $28,000 mark and faced concerns from market participants over potential losses to come.
Market observers are concerned about a sharp jump in Treasury yields similar to that of the 1987 crash, and Saxo Bank's chief investment officer Steen Jakobsen suggests that investors reduce risk by increasing cash balances, hedging portfolios, rotating into short-term bonds, favoring defensive sectors over cyclicals, and avoiding mega-cap stocks.
The rise in Treasury bond yields above 5% could lead to a more sustainable increase and potential havoc in financial markets, as investors demand greater compensation for risk and corporate credit spreads widen, making government debt a more attractive option and leaving the stock market vulnerable to declines; despite this, stock investors appeared unfazed by the September jobs report and all three major stock indexes were higher by the end of trading.
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are down following the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed slowing inflation, with experts noting that investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset and CPI figures are becoming less relevant for the crypto market.
Investors in U.S. Treasuries are feeling on edge due to news of increased consumer prices and weak demand, suggesting that volatility in the fixed-income markets continues, while lower bond yields reflect a desire for safe assets amidst uncertainty caused by the war in Israel, with concerns of further tightening from the Federal Reserve and mixed economic data from China adding to the market's unease.
The crypto market experienced a significant downturn this week, with Ethereum being hit particularly hard, trading at its lowest point since March. Other major coins and tokens, including Toncoin, Solana, Ripple, Polygon, and Bitcoin Cash, also suffered losses. Only Bitcoin saw a relatively smaller decline.
The Treasury market is experiencing high levels of volatility, similar to what was seen during the pandemic, due to concerns about rising yields, the Federal Reserve's hiking cycle, and uncertainty surrounding the conflict between Hamas and Israel.