Nvidia GPU Lead Times Shrink, Signaling Supply Ramp and Growth Slowdown
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Wait times for Nvidia's H100 AI GPU have dropped from 8-11 months down to 3-4 months, suggesting peak near-term growth
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Reduction indicates TSMC expanding production capacity, meaning better supply and fulfillment
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But as lead times fall, Nvidia transitions from backlogs+new orders to just new orders, likely causing revenue decline
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Analysts say continued growth is priced into stock, but shortened lead times suggest cool off in next 2-3 quarters
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Though Nvidia growth may slow, overall AI compute capacity will keep expanding with more GPUs from competitors