Wall Street on Alert for Return of 1970s Stagflation as Inflation Soars and Growth Slows
• Recent inflation data has Wall Street worried about potential stagflation - a combination of high inflation and slow economic growth. Strategists see a risk of 1970s-style inflation returning.
• If stagflation occurs, stocks and bonds would likely underperform while commodities outperform. Some commodities like sugar and cocoa futures are already seeing substantial price increases.
• Inflationary factors like high government spending, Middle East conflicts impacting oil, and lingering COVID impacts mirror the 1970s emergence of stagflation.
• Warning signs like silver outperforming gold haven't happened yet. But oil recently topped $80/barrel for the first time since November.
• Economists are split on inflation's path. Some see inflation clearly declining while others warn underlying inflation is rising. The potential for more geopolitical tensions and oil supply issues remains a key risk.