Posted 2/28/2024, 3:30:00 PM
Inverted Yield Curve Predicting Recession, But Soft Landing Still Possible Without Economic Shock
- Yield curve has been inverted for 16 months, historically signaling a recession within 9-17 months
- However, inverted yield curve only accounts for 50% of a solid recession call
- Other key ingredient is a shock to the system, like financial/economic crisis
- No major shock appears to be brewing at the moment
- Top economists saying soft landing feels less likely, hard landing more guaranteed