Economist Warns Recession Likely as Unemployment Rises Close to Key Threshold
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Michael Kantrowitz believes the US economy is likely heading into a recession.
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Kantrowitz's "red flag" indicator is the change in the number of unemployed persons year-over-year.
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The share of unemployed people has risen 7.7% year-over-year, nearing Kantrowitz's 10% recession threshold.
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Kantrowitz sees signs that unemployment claims will spike, citing the relationship between homebuilder sentiment and claims.
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Kantrowitz believes "we are at the very onset of a recession right now," which could send stocks down 20%.