China's Slowing Economic Growth Puts Overtaking U.S. as Top Economy in Question
-
China's economic growth is slowing due to high debt, an aging population, and a property crisis, making it uncertain if or when it will overtake the US as the world's largest economy.
-
Citi economist Nathan Sheets estimates China's economy is now only 65% the size of the US, down from 75% in 2021.
-
Sheets forecasts 4% medium-term GDP growth for China, down from 10% pre-financial crisis, with overtaking the US possibly delayed until the 2040s or even 2080.
-
Factors that powered China's rapid growth like urbanization are tapped out, and debt levels are very high at 272% of GDP.
-
Even if China's overall economy overtakes the US, average Chinese incomes likely to remain below American levels due to China's much larger population.