Economy Showing Faint Signs of Slow Recovery, But Outlook Remains Cautious

Interest rates and short leading economic indicators are slowly improving, though long leading indicators remain largely negative.

Stock prices continue rising to new highs, oil prices have fallen to the lower part of their 3-year range, and consumer spending is holding up.

Temporary staffing remains very negative and recessionary. Other coincident indicators are mixed.

If background conditions continue getting "less bad," more short leading and coincident indicators may improve.

The data suggests the economy may be slowly setting the stage for better growth in 2024, though the pace of improvement is very gradual.