Fed Rate Cut Outlook for 2024 Depends on Inflation and Recession Risks
-
Factors determining Fed rate cuts in 2024 include whether inflation stabilizes or recession hits.
-
Just stabilizing inflation may allow modest cuts, but recession would prompt more aggressive easing.
-
Still too early to determine if inflation or recession will be main driver for Fed.
-
If just inflation improves, rates may go from 5.5% to 4%.
-
But recession may require cuts to neutral rate of 2.5-3%, indicating long way still to go.