Inflation Cooling but Still High; Recession Odds Fall Though Growth Slows

Inflation is cooling but remains above the Fed's 2% target. Consumers expect inflation to remain elevated in the near-term.

Job switchers are losing their pay advantage over job stayers as wage growth moderates.

Mortgage rates continue rising, constraining housing affordability. Home purchase demand is at a 3-decade low.

Unprofitable firms are increasing but still represent a small share of total business revenues.

Economists have lowered recession odds, now seeing a 48% chance within a year. Near-term GDP forecasts remain positive.