Russia's blockade of Ukrainian grain exports and extreme weather events have raised concerns about global food supplies, but the OECD suggests that the situation may not be as dire as it seems, with adjustments and adaptations being made to production and logistics chains to mitigate potential shocks in the market.
The tightening of oil supply and the alliance between Saudi Arabia and Russia to push for higher prices raises concerns for consumers as fuel costs surge, potentially impacting the global economy and inflation rates.
Sanctions imposed on Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine have resulted in fuel shortages, scarcity of readily available items, and impacts on the aviation industry, paper production, plywood manufacturing, cell-phone reception, tire and lubricant supply, and the production of military vehicles.
The French government plans to temporarily lift a ban on retailers selling road fuel below cost in efforts to combat inflation and alleviate pressure on households, while also requiring companies to indicate when they modify the size of a product on labels.
The International Energy Agency warns of a deepening oil market deficit in the fourth quarter due to extended Saudi and Russian production cuts, leading to diesel shortages and higher fuel prices impacting sectors such as construction, transport, and farming.
Russia has temporarily banned exports of gasoline and diesel to countries outside of four ex-Soviet states in order to stabilize the domestic market and reduce prices for consumers.
The recent global supply concerns caused by Russia's fuel export ban are driving up oil prices, counteracting the demand fears driven by macroeconomic headwinds and high interest rates.
Oil prices rose over 1% after Russia implemented an export ban on diesel and gas, which aims to replenish domestic supply and reduce prices, potentially impacting global oil supply and driving up energy prices, excluding demand shrinkage, while also predicting easing gas prices in the US except for some western states.
Crude oil prices are expected to decline this week due to profit-taking and concerns over the economy, despite Russia's ban on fuel exports adding upward pressure to prices.
TotalEnergies is expected to provide a strategy update, while Russia's gasoline and diesel export ban, maintenance work in Norway's gas fields, hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the European Petrochemical Association's annual meeting are also being monitored in the energy market.
Higher oil prices, boosted by supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, may benefit Russia's oil revenues by allowing them to sell crude over the $60-a-barrel price cap imposed by sanctions.
The startup of terminal maintenance at Cove Point LNG is impacting Northeast gas prices, while diesel importers in Brazil face uncertainty due to Russia's temporary ban on exports.
Almost three-quarters of Russia's seaborne oil exports are avoiding Western insurers, allowing the country to bypass the G7 price cap and increase its oil export revenues by $15 billion this year.
The Russian government seems to have found a way to bypass the $60 oil price cap implemented by Western governments to prevent President Putin from profiting off the conflict in Ukraine, raising questions about the effectiveness of the cap and the ability to enforce it in the future.
Japan's ban on used-car sales to Russia, driven by sanctions over Ukraine, has disrupted a trade worth nearly $2 billion annually and led to a decline in prices for second-hand cars in Japan, forcing brokers to seek other export markets.
Russia has lifted the ban on pipeline diesel exports via ports, which were installed on September 21st, however, restrictions on gasoline exports are still in place.
Diesel prices are expected to decrease after Russia lifted a ban on oil exports, causing a drop in global supplies and a decrease in fuel costs.
The Biden administration is implementing new measures to increase the cost of Russia's attempts to bypass the price limit on its oil, aiming to enforce the price cap more strictly and send a clear message to Russia that their expansion attempts will face a decisive response, as the West believes that the diverted funds could be used for military equipment.
Mounting threats to global gas supply, including the Israel-Hamas war, potential strikes, infrastructure vulnerabilities, and a leak in a Baltic Sea pipeline, are causing fear in the market and driving up fuel prices, particularly in Asia and Europe. The energy crisis is far from over and any disruptions to gas flows could have significant impacts on the market.
Russian crude oil producers are able to ship to refiners in China and India at the cheapest costs in almost a year due to the increasing number of vessels plying these routes, allowing them to earn more than the imposed $60 per barrel cap on Russia through sanctions.
