Venezuela Stakes Claim to Guyana's Oil-Rich Region, Raising Tensions But Unlikely Risk of Conflict
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Venezuela held a referendum claiming sovereignty over land in neighboring Guyana's oil-rich Essequibo region, sparking tensions between the countries.
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Venezuela has seen declining oil production and is eyeing Guyana's offshore crude discoveries by Exxon and partners. Guyana's production could reach 620k bpd.
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Oil prices have remained low despite the dispute. Analysts say the risk of a Venezuelan invasion of Guyana is low.
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The U.S. would likely support Guyana in the dispute. Reimposing sanctions on Venezuela is seen as a potential lever.
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Venezuela may be saber rattling to unite domestic opposition and gain leverage on sanctions relief from the U.S. ahead of elections. But the risk of military miscalculation remains.