Fed Eyed for Rate Cut Signs As Inflation Holds Above Target

• March CPI inflation report will be analyzed by Federal Reserve ahead of May 1 policy meeting; no rate changes expected but could influence summer rate cut prospects

• Annual inflation was 3.2% in February (3.8% excluding food and energy), above 2% target

• Forecasts suggest 0.3-0.4% monthly inflation for March, indicating rates still above target

• Fed watching trends in shelter costs, services prices, goods deflation to assess overall direction

• Monthly inflation at 0.3% or less needed to keep summer rate cut plans on track