CPI Report Expected to Show Cooling Inflation Trends Despite September Energy Spike

Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September will be released on October 12. Expect cooling core inflation despite rising headline inflation.

Since March 2023, price increases have generally cooled across goods, services, and housing categories.

Recent spike in energy costs may push up headline CPI again in September. Oil prices have since dropped which may help cool October CPI.

Cleveland Fed nowcasting sees 0.39% monthly headline CPI and 0.36% core CPI. Translates to 3.7% and 4.2% annual rates.

Fed watching for evidence of inflation declining back to 2% goal. Will inform potential additional rate hikes in 2023.