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African coups show complex roots and mixed results for democracy

  • Recent coups in Africa highlight regional variations, with history, foreign intervention, economics, and military politicization as factors.

  • Gabon's coup differs from others as there were no major security threats, and the ousted leader was a dynastic dictator unlike more democratic nations.

  • Coups can seem appealing when governments appear ineffective against insurgencies, but often just replace one bad system with another.

  • While coups sometimes accidentally lead to democracy, they often simply reinforce the ruling elite's power through sham elections.

  • Coups are part of a global trend away from democracy, alongside self-coups and autocratic leaders eroding institutions.

vox.com
Relevant topic timeline:
Main Topic: Armed coup in Niger and its impact on the country and international partners. Key Points: 1. The army in Niger has offered no resistance to the forces that seized power in an armed coup. 2. U.S. forces in Niger are on restricted movements as they assess the situation. 3. Niger, a key partner in the West's fight against Islamist groups, has experienced its first coup since gaining independence in 1960.
Main Topic: Military coup in Niger threatens Western fight against Islamist militants in the Sahel region. Key Points: 1. The military coup in Niger jeopardizes the counterterrorism efforts of the United States, France, and other Western countries against Boko Haram and ISIS affiliates. 2. The coup could provide an opportunity for Russia to increase its influence in West Africa through its Wagner Group paramilitaries. 3. The Biden administration has not yet labeled the events in Niger as a coup, but if it does, it would require a halt to American military assistance and training in the country. France would also likely withdraw its troops.
Main Topic: Attempted military coup in Niger Key Points: 1. The U.S. government has not declared it a coup due to uncertainty surrounding the situation. 2. The coup appears to be driven by a personal dispute between the Presidential Guard commander and President Bazoum. 3. The U.S. is looking to neighboring Nigeria for leadership in resolving the crisis and has warned of severe consequences if the coup continues.
Main Topic: Protests in Niger in support of a coup and the potential for military intervention. Key Points: 1. Thousands of protesters in Niger attacked the French embassy and demonstrated in support of the coup. 2. West African nations warned of possible military action to restore democratic rule and imposed sanctions on Niger. 3. France and the United States condemned the coup and expressed concern about the situation, with the U.S. linking economic and security ties to the release of the detained president and restoration of democratic order.
Main Topic: The United States sees a "narrow" window of opportunity to reverse the military takeover in Niger. Key Points: 1. Niger's democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, was ousted in a coup last week. 2. Chad's leader, Mahamat Idriss DĂ©by Itno, met with Bazoum in an attempt to resolve the crisis. 3. The Biden administration has refrained from using the word "coup" and has not set a deadline for the release of Bazoum and the restoration of democratic rule.
Main Topic: Coup leaders in Niger refuse to allow a senior U.S. diplomat to meet with the democratically elected president, who is under "virtual house arrest." Key Points: 1. Coup leaders are unreceptive to U.S. pressure to return the country to civilian rule. 2. U.S. warns of cutting off assistance if democracy is not restored. 3. Regional tensions rise as neighboring countries consider their response and the junta seeks support from Russian mercenaries.
A survey conducted in West Africa suggests that most people in the region approve of the recent coup in Niger and doubt the need for military intervention to reinstate the ousted president, Mohamed Bazoum, with a majority expressing concerns about the potential for a wider regional conflict. Furthermore, the survey highlights Russia's growing appeal in West Africa, particularly in Mali, where Russia is viewed as the most trusted partner.
Gabon's military coup led to the largest drop in its dollar bonds since the COVID-19 pandemic, raising concerns about the risk of sanctions and its impact on the wider Africa debt market, just weeks after the country completed a debt for nature swap.
Gabon's military officers have taken control of the country and placed President Ali Bongo under house arrest, exposing the country's economic challenges, including high levels of corruption and widespread poverty.
A military coup in Gabon has put an end to the more than 50 years of family rule by President Ali Bongo, although the new leader is his cousin and accusations of corruption continue to plague the country.
General Brice Oligui Ngeuma, leader of the coup in Gabon, is seen by many as a liberator from the Bongo dynasty, but there are concerns about his plans for civilian rule and the corruption charges against former President Ali Bongo.