UBS Predicts Much Lower Interest Rates Ahead as Economy Weakens
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UBS economists forecast much lower interest rates than others - down to 1.25% by early 2025 vs consensus around 4%
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They see weakening consumer demand as excess savings dry up and credit tightens
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Business investment looks weak with falling manufacturing, temp employment, and new orders
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UBS expects inflation to steadily decline, allowing Fed to cut rates as real rates rise
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Rising unemployment in their forecast would also prompt Fed to cut rates swiftly and deeply