Why Central Bankers Are Unsure Whether They’ve Raised Rates Enough
Central bankers are uncertain if they have raised interest rates enough, prompting concerns about the effectiveness of their monetary policies.
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Posted 8/27/2023, 12:00:00 PM
wsj.com
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The majority of economists polled by Reuters predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again, and they expect the central bank to wait until at least the end of March before cutting them, as the probability of a recession within a year falls to its lowest level since September 2022.
Experts are divided on whether the US Federal Reserve should raise its interest rate target to 3% to combat inflation and cushion against recessions, with some arguing that raising inflation targets would be futile.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker does not believe that the U.S. central bank will need to increase interest rates again and suggests holding steady to see how the economy responds, stating that the current restrictive stance should bring inflation down.
Two officials at the Federal Reserve have expressed differing views on whether or not the central bank should raise its benchmark interest rate again to combat inflation, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding future rate hikes, with more clarity expected from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at a Fed conference in Jackson Hole.
Despite concerns over rising deficits and debt, central banks globally have been buying government debt to combat deflationary forces, which has kept interest rates low and prevented a rise in rates as deficits increase; therefore, the assumption that interest rates must go higher may be incorrect.
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia believes that the US central bank has already raised interest rates enough to bring inflation down to pre-pandemic levels of around 2%.
Top central bankers, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, emphasized the importance of keeping interest rates high until inflation is under control while also grappling with economic challenges and uncertainties at the annual Federal Reserve gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The Federal Reserve is considering raising interest rates again in order to reduce inflation to its targeted levels, as indicated by Fed Governor Michelle W. Bowman, who stated that additional rate increases will likely be needed; however, conflicting economic indicators, such as job growth and wage growth, may complicate the decision-making process.
Central banks are likely to push western economies into a recession in order to tackle inflation, according to a member of Jeremy Hunt's advisory council. Karen Ward, an economist at JP Morgan Asset Management, believes signs of weakness will be needed before policymakers can ease their tough approach, as the message from a recent gathering of central bankers in Wyoming was that borrowing costs would need to be higher for longer than expected. Ward's comments come as Germany reports its highest wage growth figure since 2008.
The Federal Reserve meeting in September may hold the key to the end of the tightening cycle, as markets anticipate a rate hike in November, aligning with the Fed's thinking on its peak rate. However, disagreement among Fed policymakers regarding the strength of the economy and inflation raises questions about the clarity and certainty of the Fed's guidance. Market skeptics remain uncertain about the possibility of a "soft landing," with sustained economic expansion following a period of tightening.
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge increased slightly in July, suggesting that the fight against inflation may be challenging, but the absence of worse news indicates that officials are likely to maintain interest rates.
Emerging-market central banks are resisting expectations of interest rate cuts, which is lowering the outlook for developing-nation bonds, as central banks in Asia and Latin America turn hawkish in response to the "higher-for-longer" stance taken by the Federal Reserve, currency pressures, and the threat of inflation.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller acknowledges that recent strong economic data will allow the central bank to proceed cautiously with potential interest rate hikes as it assesses whether inflation is under control.
Global equity investors are concerned about central bank policies as U.S. data shows a rise in inflationary pressures, causing markets to worry about a potential end to the Goldilocks scenario and softer labor markets.
The European Central Bank faces a difficult decision on whether or not to hike rates as the economy slows, while the US releases inflation numbers and rising oil prices create concerns about price pressures.
Federal Reserve policymakers are not eager to raise interest rates, but they are cautious about declaring victory as they monitor data such as inflation and job growth; most do not expect a rate hike at the upcoming policy-setting meeting.
Pakistan's central bank is expected to raise interest rates to address inflation and bolster foreign exchange reserves, following a series of rate hikes earlier this year in response to economic and political crises.
Uncertainty in various sectors, including potential strikes, government shutdowns, geopolitical tensions, and the question of future Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, is causing markets to lack conviction, but this week's inflation readings could provide direction for the markets. If inflation comes in below expectations, it may signal that the Fed will not hike rates further, while stronger-than-expected inflation could lead to more rate hikes and market volatility. Additionally, increasing energy prices and the potential strike by the United Auto Workers union add to the uncertainty.
The European Central Bank may raise interest rates for a 10th consecutive meeting on Thursday, but the decision is uncertain.
The European Central Bank is facing a dilemma on whether to raise its key interest rate to combat inflation or hold off due to economic deterioration, with investors split on the likelihood of a rate hike.
The European Central Bank has raised key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to help bring down inflation, although the economy is expected to remain weak for a while before slowly recovering in the coming years.
Economist Campbell Harvey warns that the Federal Reserve should not raise rates later this year, as he believes a recession may occur in 2024 due to an inverted yield curve and potential distortions in Bureau of Labor Statistics and GDP figures.
Russia's central bank has raised interest rates to 13% in an effort to combat inflation and support the struggling ruble, which is trading near a 16-month low against the dollar.
Goldman Sachs strategists predict that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting, but expect the central bank to increase its economic growth projections and make slight adjustments to its interest rate projections.
Chinese commercial banks are concerned that the central bank's recent cut to mortgage rates will not be enough to prevent a surge in mortgage prepayments, which could squeeze bank margins.
Despite elevated inflation, the Federal Reserve is not expected to lower interest rates soon, causing the Consumer Price Index to rise significantly and impacting mortgage rates and home prices.
The European Central Bank's handling of monetary policy under Christine Lagarde, including unnecessary interest rate hikes, risks pushing the Eurozone into a recession.
The Bank for International Settlements warns investors to prepare for uncertainty in global interest rates and rising pressures in the financial system, emphasizing the possibility of persistently high inflation and the need for major central banks to maintain elevated borrowing costs.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week, but investors will be paying close attention to any indications of future rate increases as the central bank continues its fight against inflation.
The Federal Reserve's uncertainty about 2024 is causing concern for the markets.
The Federal Reserve has revised its interest rate forecast, planning for fewer rate cuts next year than previously anticipated, which may not be favorable for borrowers.
The Federal Reserve's decision not to raise interest rates has provided little relief for Americans struggling with the high costs of borrowing, particularly in the housing market where mortgage rates have reached their highest level in over two decades, leading to challenges for potential and current homeowners.
Turkey's central bank raises interest rates to 30% as it seeks to combat high inflation and stabilize the weakening lira.
Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England, have pledged to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period to combat inflation and achieve global economic stability, despite concerns about the strength of the Chinese economy and geopolitical tensions.
Central banks around the world may have reached the peak of interest rate hikes in their effort to control inflation, as data suggests that major economies have turned a corner on price rises and core inflation is declining in the US, UK, and EU. However, central banks remain cautious and warn that rates may need to remain high for a longer duration, and that oil price rallies could lead to another spike in inflation. Overall, economists believe that the global monetary policy tightening cycle is nearing its end, with many central banks expected to cut interest rates in the coming year.
The Federal Reserve's measure of inflation is disconnected from market conditions, increasing the likelihood of a recession, according to Duke University finance professor Campbell Harvey. If the central bank continues to raise interest rates based on this flawed inflation gauge, the severity of the economic downturn could worsen.
Two former Federal Reserve policymakers disagree on whether the central bank should raise interest rates, with one saying rates have likely peaked and the other saying they need to be raised further, but both agree that achieving a soft landing for the economy is unlikely.