Posted 12/27/2023, 11:50:00 AM
Morgan Stanley Forecasts US Recession Risk Rising in 2024 After Near-Term Respite
- Morgan Stanley warns the US could face a recession or "hard landing" in 2024 after dodging one in 2023 due to Fed and Treasury stimulus
- The bank thinks the consensus will be fooled into believing a soft landing is happening before the surprise downturn
- Tighter monetary policy and loss of fiscal support in 2024 will tip economy into recession
- Signs of weakness already emerging like declining labor market and slowing consumer spending
- Morgan Stanley expects Fed to rapidly cut rates in response, as much as from 4.5-4.75% to 1.5-1.75% by end of 2025