Rate Cuts of This Size Historically Tied to Recessions, Current Situation an Exception
• History shows when Fed cuts rates 1.5% in a year, it’s often due to a recession
• The one exception was in 1980s when rates were hiked to very high levels first
• Another exception in 1960s was alongside spending surge due to Vietnam War
• Current expectations for rate cuts don't match these previous exceptions
• If no recession, historical precedent makes 1.5% of cuts in a year unlikely