Fed Focused on Wages, Not Jobs; Plans Rate Cuts Despite Oil and Markets

• Wage growth is the Fed's key metric, not overall jobs data - as long as wages don't accelerate, the Fed is comfortable with labor market strength

• Oil and commodity prices rising adds some inflationary pressure, but not enough to derail markets or the Fed's plans to eventually cut rates

• Energy and oil positions still have room to run - jet fuel demand outlook remains strong amid high travel intentions

• Even if the Fed raises rates more than expected in the near-term, beginning rate cuts this year should support risk assets

• Any stock market or credit spread reactions to fewer Fed cuts than expected should be short-lived dips to buy