Policymakers Seek Historic 'Soft Landing' in 2024 as They Navigate High Inflation without Recession

Policymakers aim to lower high inflation without triggering a recession in 2024, which would be unprecedented historically
Inflation has typically only fallen from over 5% to under 3% with a recession happening around that time
Hitting the 2-3% inflation target without rising unemployment rates signaling a recession would indicate a soft landing
It's hard to confirm a soft landing in real-time; warning signs like the Sahm rule could fail to signal trouble this time
Forecasts have often proven incorrect recently, so a soft landing can't be assumed as likely until it has clearly occurred