Posted 12/14/2023, 6:42:53 PM
Unemployment Drops But History Shows Job Losses Likely As Rates Fall
- Unemployment rate fell to 3.7% in November, but historical data shows it spikes to 7.5% on average during Fed rate cut cycles
- Jobless claims have trended higher since September, indicating people are struggling to find new positions
- Purchasing manager surveys show falling headcounts recently in manufacturing sector
- Retail sector lost 38,000 jobs in December, mainly in discretionary spending areas
- Rate cuts typically happen when economy is slowing, so job losses and higher unemployment are unsurprising