IMF Warns of $2.5 Trillion Loss as Cold War Two Risks Unraveling Decades of Globalization Gains
• World economy risks descending into a "cold war two" that could undo decades of globalization gains worth trillions, warns IMF official Gita Gopinath
• Growing fragmentation into US-China-centric trade blocs risks losses of 2.5% of world GDP, up to $2.5 trillion
• Supply chain "de-risking" and reshoring are accelerating, with governments spending billions to boost domestic industry
• Some non-aligned nations could benefit from trade/investment diversion, acting as "connectors" between blocs
• But if fragmentation worsens further, even these countries could end up with "a larger slice of a smaller pie" as all sides lose out