Target-Date Funds Turn Retirees into Unwitting Contrarians
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Target-date funds (TDFs) turn retirees into contrarians by automatically selling stocks when the market rises and buying when it falls.
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TDFs have grown enormously, with $5 trillion now invested in them, and research shows they stabilise the stock market by offsetting panic selling in downturns.
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However, TDFs also dampen market rallies by offsetting enthusiastic buying when stocks are rising.
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TDFs' contrarian strategy may become less profitable as more investors adopt it, ironically causing trend-following to become more profitable.
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If you don't want to be a contrarian, you may not want your retirement funds in a target-date fund.