JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns that America's addiction to debt, particularly the surge of new debt taken on during the pandemic, poses a dangerous risk to the economy and could lead to inflation, market volatility, and potential long-term consequences such as defaulting on debt in 20 years.
Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy has increased in November, driven by short-term expectations related to income, business, and labor market conditions, although overall consumer expectations remain below 80 for the third consecutive month and a depressed consumer expectations index typically foreshadows a recession within the year.
Reduced supply from major copper producers Panama and Peru may lead to a deficit in the global copper market by 2024, potentially boosting prices and attracting more investors.
Post-Brexit Britain has seen a significant increase in government aid to businesses, with spending reaching higher levels than before the pandemic, indicating a shift towards a more interventionist economic approach.
US consumer confidence rose in November, with Americans planning to make big-ticket purchases despite concerns about higher prices and interest rates, according to a survey by the Conference Board.
Nearly 90% of Americans reported increased expenses in 2023, with rising costs primarily seen in essential categories such as groceries, utilities, and healthcare due to inflationary pressures. Food prices have surged the most, followed by gas and transportation, housing, and utilities, causing financial stress for many individuals. Lingering inflation and higher interest rates, along with the resumption of student loan payments, are contributing factors to the increased expenses. As a result, people are prioritizing essential spending and cutting back on discretionary expenses to maintain financial stability.
Despite economic fears, strategists are optimistic about the market in 2024, with a history of recessions not being a major concern.
The Japanese government's fiscal 2024 budget request reflects the Bank of Japan's policy shift to allow bond yields to rise, resulting in an 11% increase in debt servicing costs.
The onset of the El Niño weather event could disrupt the food and agriculture industry, particularly wheat production in Australia, leading to potential increases in wheat prices globally.
Global central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, are adopting a "higher for longer" approach to interest rates, while Wall Street remains optimistic for 2024 despite recession risks and inflation pressures.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated that the U.S. central bank will likely need to raise borrowing costs further to bring inflation back down to its 2% target over a reasonable period.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman believes that the U.S. central bank will need to raise borrowing costs further in order to bring inflation back down to its 2% target.
A total investment of $13.5 trillion is needed to achieve a carbon-neutral future by 2050, with particular focus on the production, energy, and transport sectors, according to the World Economic Forum.
Charles Schwab's 2024 outlook predicts possible economic difficulties, but expects the stock market to continue progressing, emphasizing resilient consumer spending and noting potential emerging credit risks.
Consumer confidence rebounded in November from a 15-month low but concerns about a recession continue to linger, according to a survey by the Conference Board.
China's economic growth is projected to slow to 4.6% by 2026, while India is expected to become the growth engine of the Asia-Pacific region with a GDP growth rate of 7% in the same period, according to a report by S&P Global Ratings.
Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller suggests that the Fed may cut its benchmark interest rate in the spring if inflation continues to decline steadily.
US home prices reached a new record high in September, marking the eighth consecutive month of increases, despite mortgage rates remaining high and low inventory levels.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in November after three months of decline, driven by improved expectations, although concerns about rising prices and the possibility of a recession remain.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledges to address a budget crisis caused by a court ruling that struck down planned spending on clean energy and economic modernization, further impacting Germany's struggling economy.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is seeking to settle oil payments in local currencies and bypass the US dollar, potentially affecting sectors in the US if BRICS countries completely stop using the dollar for oil and gas deals. The UAE is looking to renew trade agreements with countries such as China, India, Russia, and Egypt, as well as other new countries willing to pay in local currencies. This move towards de-dollarization threatens the dominance of the US dollar in the oil sector and could impact the US economy.
Despite rising mortgage rates, home prices continue to reach record highs, driven by low inventory levels and strong demand, with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index marking its eighth consecutive month of growth and an all-time high in September.
Holiday shopping this year is expected to be cheaper due to drops in prices of goods, but consumers are feeling less inclined to spend as inflation remains high and wages stagnate, leading to a potential slowdown in retail sales.
Holiday spending in the US, while still strong, is expected to slow down this year due to cooling inflation and deflation, as consumers look for discounted goods and prioritize necessities, indicating potential moderation in consumer spending growth and overall economic growth in 2024.
US holiday spending growth is set to slow to 3.3% this year, down from 6% in 2021, as consumers prioritize essential purchases and seek out cheaper alternatives for nonessential goods, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. However, economists do not expect a recession in 2024 due to the continued resilience of consumers.
Fast food prices in the US have been steadily increasing due to rising labor and food costs, leading to the end of affordable options and the disappearance of dollar menus and "buy-one, get-one-free" offers, with no signs of the trend slowing down any time soon.
Nigeria's GDP in Q3 2023 grew by 2.54% compared to the same period in 2022, driven primarily by the service sector, while the oil sector saw a decrease in growth; the non-oil sector contributed 94.52% to the country's GDP.
China's decision to chart a different course of economic growth than the West after the 2007-08 financial crisis was influenced by their observation of the devastating consequences of a financialized economy, leading them to double down on centralization and traditional manufacturing-led growth.
Japan's trend inflation reached a record high of 2.2% in October, suggesting increasing price pressure and strengthening the case for the Bank of Japan to reduce its monetary stimulus.
The World Bank's Regional Vice President for South Asia, Martin Raiser, has highlighted Pakistan's low-growth trap and called for critical policy shifts to address poor human development outcomes and increasing poverty, urging the country to decide whether to maintain the patterns of the past or take difficult steps towards a brighter future through reforms in child stunting, fiscal sustainability, private sector growth, energy, learning poverty, agriculture, and climate change.
Greece plans to repay 5.3 billion euros of loans to euro zone countries ahead of schedule, with hopes of repeating the move in 2024, signaling the country's progress in improving its debt sustainability and economic growth.
The Kenyan High Court has struck down key clauses of a controversial finance law that increased taxes and the cost of living, ruling that they are unconstitutional and cannot be enforced.
The Biden administration is taking action to strengthen supply chains by forming a Council on Supply Chain Resilience and investing in domestic drug production to avoid shortages and ensure a reliable supply of critical drugs, vaccines, and countermeasures.
Online shopping on Black Friday reached a record high of $9.8 billion, but the surge in spending, largely supported by "buy now, pay later" programs, may indicate a larger issue of increasing debt for American consumers.
China's central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, stated that China is undergoing a major economic transformation towards high-quality, sustainable growth driven by consumption and services, while moving away from manufacturing and real estate, its traditional drivers of growth, and he expressed confidence in China's healthy and sustainable growth in the future despite the current challenges in the real estate sector.
The acute phase of Europe and Asia's energy crisis caused by the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine is over, with energy inventories comfortable and prices returning to long-term averages.
The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence is creating jobs, especially for the young and highly-skilled, but it could also reduce wages in the future, according to research published by the European Central Bank.
The US dollar is slightly higher in early European trade, but remains near a three-month low as traders anticipate inflation data and believe that the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates.
China's Premier Li Qiang vows to build closer supply chain ties and create an international business environment in an effort to retain foreign investment amid concerns of decoupling and de-risking from Western economies. The China International Supply Chain Expo showcases China's role in global supply chains and provides an opportunity for foreign businesses to assess market opportunities.
China's shift from a property-based economic model to green and high-tech industries will cool growth in the economy, but it will also create new demand for commodities like copper, benefiting countries that produce these resources.
Germany is facing a budget crisis after a court struck down billions in funding for clean energy projects and assistance for those affected by high utility bills due to Russia's gas supply cutoff, forcing the government to find cuts in the spending plan for next year and potentially slowing down the already struggling economy.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz vows to address the budget crisis caused by a court decision that struck down funding for renewable energy projects, but provides few details on how he will achieve clean energy goals and promote investment in the economy.
UK retailers have raised concerns to Chancellor Rishi Sunak that Brexit red tape and higher taxes risk prolonging the cost of living crisis and increasing inflation, with the British Retail Consortium (BRC) warning that government-imposed measures, such as tax increases and post-Brexit import checks, could potentially reverse progress made in bringing down inflation. The BRC also expressed doubts about the sustainability of a nearly 10% increase in the national living wage amidst a slump in consumer spending and rising tax levels.
The high cost of debt and rising interest rates are causing a default cycle to begin in the US, with more companies expected to default due to the difficulty of borrowing money, according to economists at Apollo Management.
Chinese firms are projected to experience strong earnings growth in 2024, with profits expected to rise by 16%, driven by government measures to boost consumer demand and address the struggling housing market, according to LSEG estimates based on analysts' expectations.
China's banks, already grappling with soaring bad loans and low margins, may be asked to provide unsecured loans to struggling property developers, adding to the sector's growing list of problems and potentially requiring banks to set aside an additional $89 billion next year to cover bad real estate debt.
Asian stocks climb as investors anticipate a positive inflation report and expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates, while the dollar reaches its lowest level in three months; Japan's Nikkei gears up for its strongest monthly performance in three years.
China's foreign direct investment deficit, driven by concerns over the country's slowdown, geopolitics, and regulations, could weaken the yuan and hamper China's economic growth potential, according to analysts. Foreign firms are reducing their investments in China and diversifying their supply chains to reduce dependency on Chinese suppliers, with executives expressing concerns about long-term growth prospects and a more favorable playing field for state-owned companies.
Chinese financial authorities have been injecting liquidity at an unprecedented pace since September to stabilize short-term interest rates and manage government debt.
President Biden calls on companies to lower prices as consumer costs have risen by 18% since he took office, stating that prices are still too high for many families and urging an end to price gouging.