China's economy is expected to have a strong year as consumer spending, services activity, and export growth revive, although challenges from a property downturn and lagging demand may require further easing of macroeconomic policies, including interest rate cuts and fiscal expansion.
Market strategist Tracy Schuchart predicts that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in 2024 due to rebounding inflation caused by shipping troubles and geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea.
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Argentina's monthly inflation rate is expected to reach 28% in December, the highest since the early 1990s, due to a devaluation of the peso by President Javier Milei's government, with annual inflation projected to exceed 200%.
Ghana is currently facing a severe energy crisis characterized by power rationing and electricity cuts, which threatens the country's economic gains and discourages foreign investment and tourism, highlighting the need for a sustainable and inclusive energy framework that prioritizes rural populations.
Donald Trump expressed a hope for an economic crash in the US to occur within the next 12 months, rather than during a potential second term, as he believes the current economy is fragile and running off the success of prior actions.
The consensus market expectations for the US December CPI report predict a decrease in core CPI inflation to 3.8% and an increase in headline CPI to 3.1%, with the disinflationary process likely to continue until June due to base effects and falling shelter inflation. The Federal Reserve also acknowledges the predictable disinflation in housing services and expects further softening in product and labor demand to help reduce inflation. The monthly core CPI needs to return to the 0.1-0.2% range to reach the 2% annual inflation target, and a possible recession might occur in the second half of 2024 as the effects of prior interest rate hikes hit the economy.
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in November due to a decline in imports, potentially benefiting gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, while imports of goods fell steeply, raising concerns about consumer spending. Despite the decline, U.S. exports remain near an all-time high, reflecting economic weakness in foreign economies. The trade deficit is expected to have a minimal negative impact on fourth-quarter GDP growth, which is forecasted to be around 2.5%.
Mortgage rates are expected to remain steady in 2024, with the National Association of Realtors predicting a slow decline throughout the year, while rates have slightly increased in the first weeks of January.
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Cuba announces a five-fold increase in fuel prices in an effort to reduce its deficit and revive its struggling economy, exacerbating the difficulties faced by cash-strapped Cubans.
Former President Donald Trump hopes that the U.S. economy crashes in the next 12 months rather than during his potential second term in office, in order to avoid being associated with Herbert Hoover's presidency during the Great Depression. Trump has frequently criticized the state of the economy under President Joe Biden and suggested that the current economic improvements are the result of his administration's previous work.
Despite worries of inflation, holiday retail sales grew 3.1% year-over-year, indicating that consumers' concerns about inflation have eased and they are taking back their power to spend, according to Michelle Meyer, Mastercard Chief Economist.
China's economy is losing steam relative to the United States, with its GDP estimated to be two-thirds the size of the US in 2023, down from 76 percent in 2021, resulting in doubts over China's ability to surpass the US as the largest economy.
Small businesses in the US remain pessimistic about the economy due to concerns over worker shortage and chronic inflation, with inflation surpassing worker quality as the biggest threat to these businesses.
U.S. stock index futures paused after a strong rally, as investors adjusted their expectations for interest-rate cuts ahead of key inflation reports, causing tech giants like Apple and Amazon to slip in premarket trading.
A new study suggests that the media's negative coverage of the economy since 2018 has contributed to a disconnect between the actual economic performance and people's perception of it.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces political obstacles, including former President Trump, as the central bank decides whether and how deeply to cut interest rates amid the 2024 presidential election and the partisan battle over President Biden's handling of the economy.
The monthly jobs report shows a higher-than-expected number of jobs created, but there are concerns about potential problems and unreliability in the report.
Retail shrink, which refers to inventory loss due to theft, damage, or errors, is a growing problem in the industry, resulting in significant profit losses and increased prices for consumers; however, retailers are struggling to develop effective strategies to address the issue and quantify its root causes.
A war over Taiwan could have a significant impact on the US and global economy, with the US GDP potentially taking a 6.7% hit in the first year, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis. In the case of a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, the US could see a 3.3% decrease in GDP growth. Overall, a war over Taiwan could result in a $10 trillion loss to the world's economy, with Taiwan's GDP potentially decreasing by 40% and China's GDP by 16.7%. Other countries in the region, such as South Korea and Japan, could also experience a significant decline in growth.
Government hiring has contributed to recent job growth as part of the pandemic-era employment recovery, but this trend may be approaching its end.
Unemployment in the eurozone unexpectedly falls to a joint record low of 6.4%, indicating a strong job market despite weak economic growth in the region.
The top 10 African countries with the highest economic growth prospects for 2024, according to the UN, include Senegal, Libya, Rwanda, Mauritania, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Benin.
China continues to be a crucial market for multinational corporations despite challenges such as geopolitical risks and competition, with the country accounting for 15% of revenue for the top 200 MNCs in 2022, and even larger percentages for specific companies like Tesla and Mercedes-Benz, according to Bain & Co. While the growth rate is expected to slow in the coming years, China remains an attractive market for various industries, and supply chain diversification and partnerships with domestic players present opportunities for MNCs in the country.
The head of Turkey's central bank, Hafize Gaye Erkan, has criticized Istanbul's soaring rent prices, highlighting the housing affordability crisis faced by many Turkish citizens, including public servants and minimum wage earners. Rent prices have surged due to the country's economic policies, with annual house price inflation reaching 205% and rent inflation at 41% in October 2022. The situation has resulted in violent disputes between landlords and tenants and has led to a decline in home ownership rates.
The article argues that lower interest rates are needed due to the slowing economy, the weak December jobs report, falling commodity prices, and the deflation of used car prices, while housing remains under pressure from high prices and mortgage rates. Abundant reserves and low credit and swap spreads indicate no imminent recession, but the article cautions that delaying a response to these developments could lead to deflationary pressures building up.
China's central bank signaled that it is ready to implement loose monetary policies by reducing banks' reserve requirements, indicating the possibility of further easing measures to support credit growth and bolster the economy.
The city of Dongguan in China is offering subsidies of up to 600,000 yuan ($84,289) to manufacturers who maintain full-scale production during the Lunar New Year holiday, aiming to prevent disruptions and ensure a strong start to the year. The subsidies also include transport subsidies for migrant workers and incentives for firms that achieve substantial growth.
Exporters in Pakistan are selling their dollars in the banking market due to the regular appreciation of the rupee, which is helping stabilize the exchange rate and boost confidence in the financial sector, as hopes are attached to the Special Investment Facilitation Council and business delegations from Gulf countries visit the country to explore investment opportunities.
Former President Trump predicts that the U.S. economy will crash and expresses his hope that it happens within the next year, contrasting himself with President Hoover and taking credit for the current economic successes, despite the economy's positive performance.
Asia's stock indexes were mostly higher as investors anticipate the next U.S. inflation numbers, which could provide insight into potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve; Australian shares rose after retail sales grew by 2% in November, exceeding expectations.
Commodities expert Jeff Currie predicts that energy prices will rise in 2024 as green energy policies regain prominence and inflation subsides, marking a return to the pre-inflation green landscape of the past.
Jacksonville, Florida; Raleigh, North Carolina; and Las Vegas, Nevada are experiencing the greatest positive changes in employment among larger metropolitan areas, while Lawrence, Kansas; Charleston, South Carolina; and Salinas, California are leading the job growth in cities with fewer than 1 million residents in the US.
The head of macro research Europe at Goldman Sachs, Peter Oppenheimer, believes that the combination of AI and decarbonization will drive a new economic 'super cycle' with groundbreaking technology that could rival the impact of the steam engine or electrification, although stability is threatened by international conflict and resistance to globalization.
US consumers accumulated near-record levels of debt during the holiday season, with outstanding credit balances surpassing the $5 trillion mark, according to the Federal Reserve; however, concerns are rising as delinquencies reach their highest level since 2012, indicating potential financial strain for households. Additionally, while consumers' expectations for inflation have declined, median spending growth expectations dropped in December, suggesting a possible slowdown in spending.
The consensus view on Wall Street for 2024 is a "soft-ish" landing, disinflation, and continued consumer strength, but past years have shown that predictions can be wrong due to unexpected events, leading to a cautious approach this year.
Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman has revised her stance on monetary policy and now believes that if inflation continues to decline, it may be appropriate to cut interest rates to prevent excessive downward pressure on growth. However, she still sees some risks of inflation increasing in the future.
Global optimism is on the rise as 70% of people expect a better year in 2024 compared to 2023, although economic concerns remain with expectations of higher inflation and interest rates, according to an Ipsos survey.
A new survey from Fannie Mae shows that 31% of Americans expect mortgage rates to fall this year, while the same percentage expect rates to rise and 36% think they'll stay the same; the survey also reveals that more homeowners now believe mortgage rates will go down than go up, marking a shift in sentiment.
The US dollar's strong rally at the start of the year weakened as speculators placed bets against the currency, anticipating interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to cooling inflation.
Consumer credit rose by $23.7 billion in November, reaching a 5.7% annual rate and surpassing $5 trillion for the first time ever, boosted by increased credit card usage during the holiday shopping season, according to the Federal Reserve.
US consumer borrowing surged in November, with credit-card balances jumping as the holiday-shopping season began, leading to concerns about higher borrowing costs and potential pullback in discretionary spending.
Economists are puzzled by the decrease in inflation without a rise in unemployment, as wage inflation has not significantly declined and remains above the Fed's target level, indicating the lack of progress in reducing wage inflation.
BRICS bank, also known as the New Development Bank, is making progress in its mission to reduce reliance on the US dollar, with new nations expected to join the bloc and an increase in funding from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which will help finance infrastructure projects in local currencies and lessen the influence of the West and the US dollar.
The restaurant industry in Canada is requesting a last-minute extension to the repayment deadline for pandemic small business loans, warning of severe consequences for the sector if not granted, as a significant number of food service operators are struggling to break even due to the ongoing impacts of the pandemic.
Fox News Channel is airing various programs such as "The Evening Edit with Elizabeth Macdonald" and "Special Report Democracy 2024: Iowa Town Hall w/ Amb. Nikki Haley," while Fox News Radio provides live coverage of news events, including Mayorkas speaking about ongoing Southwest Border enforcement efforts.
Bulls in the market may face a costly setback as investors question if the current situation is truly unique.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic believes that inflation is on track to reach the Fed's 2% target, but it is too early to declare victory. Bostic also expects two rate cuts this year, with the first cut likely to occur in the third quarter.
A total of 749,000 jobs reported by the federal government in 2023 were revised down, representing nearly one-fourth of the jobs initially thought to be created that year, indicating consistent errors in measuring nonfarm payrolls, according to analysis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).