Over $1 trillion in commercial real estate debt will mature in the next two years, and some borrowers may have to sell assets due to limited lending sources, with smaller property owners being at higher risk.
The Federal Reserve faces new questions as the U.S. economy continues to perform well despite high interest rates, prompting economists to believe a "soft landing" is possible, with optimism rising for an acceleration of growth and a more sustainable post-pandemic economy.
Fannie Mae economists predict that the U.S. housing market will remain unchanged regardless of whether the economy experiences a soft landing or enters a mild recession, with high mortgage interest rates and housing affordability issues continuing to impact the market. They anticipate that existing home sales will remain subdued, and while a recession may lead to a pullback in construction, a soft landing accompanied by higher mortgage rates could also result in slower housing construction and sales.
China's economy is facing a series of crises, including a real estate and debt crisis, record joblessness, and a growing lack of confidence, leading to decreased spending and investment.
China's property developers are facing a debt crisis and the country's economy is in a worse state than it was in the 1970s, raising concerns about a broader financial crisis, according to analyst Charlene Chu.
The U.S. economy may achieve a soft landing, as strong labor market, cooling inflation, and consumer savings support economic health and mitigate the risk of a recession, despite the rise in interest rates.
The US economy may face disruption as debts are refinanced at higher interest rates, which could put pressure on both financial institutions and the government, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic.
The U.S. economy is defying expectations with continued growth, falling inflation, and a strong stock market; however, there is uncertainty about the near-term outlook and it depends on the economy's future course and the actions of the Federal Reserve.
The U.S. economy is heading towards a soft landing, but the actions of Saudi Arabia and Russia may disrupt this trajectory.
Despite recent optimism around the U.S. economy, Deutsche Bank analysts believe that a recession is more likely than a "soft landing" as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary conditions to curb inflation.
Australia's economy may not experience a soft landing, according to Treasurer Jim Chalmers, due to potential risks such as China's slowing economy and a slump in household consumption resulting from rising interest rates.
Bank of America warns that the US economy still faces the risk of a "hard landing" due to rising oil prices, a strong dollar, and potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, contrasting with the optimistic outlook of other Wall Street banks.
The bullish and bearish narratives in the market are clashing over whether there will be a soft landing or economic problems in the future. The battle over the economy and concern over inflation will be the primary issue for the market in the coming months.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Goldman Sachs may be optimistic about a "soft landing" scenario for the US economy, but the author remains skeptical due to factors such as a deeply inverted yield curve, declining Leading Economic Indicators, challenges faced by the consumer, global growth concerns, and the lagging impact of the Fed's monetary policy, leading them to maintain a conservative portfolio allocation.
Washington's job market recovery is mixed, with some sectors showing strong growth while others lag behind, and the state's overall economic outlook is uncertain as experts debate whether a soft or hard landing is more likely.
Despite economists' hopes for a "soft landing" of the economy, signs such as inflation and uncertain variables make it difficult to determine whether the U.S. economy has achieved this outcome.
The Bank of International Settlements warns that financial markets should be cautious of persistent inflation and a more severe economic downturn next year, which could lead to insolvencies and a steep decline in property prices.
The article discusses the current state of the economy and questions whether the "soft landing" explanation and belief in a full recovery are accurate, particularly in light of China's economic struggles and global inflation concerns.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicates that while policymakers project a "soft landing" for the US economy, he does not confirm it as a baseline expectation due to external factors beyond their control such as the autoworker strike, government shutdown, and higher borrowing costs.
Despite threats such as a government shutdown, the UAW strike, rising gas prices, and the resumption of student loan repayments, economists are mostly unconcerned about a potential economic slowdown, believing the economy to be internally robust but vulnerable to mistakes.
