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Amazon and Google Stocks Face Breakup Risks But Offer Strong Growth Potential, Say Analysts

  • Amazon and Google face potential government-ordered breakups, but this could unlock shareholder value by separating fast-growing units like AWS and YouTube.

  • Amazon trades at a high P/E but low P/S ratio compared to market. Google's valuations are more reasonable considering growth expectations.

  • Amazon has underperformed the market the past 5 years but is the best 10-year performer.

  • Amazon and Google are expected to deliver strong sales and EPS growth above market averages through 2025.

  • Analysts overwhelmingly rate both stocks a buy, with 37% and 17% upside to price targets for Amazon and Google, respectively.

marketwatch.com
Relevant topic timeline:
- Amazon Web Services (AWS) is facing pressure as its growth and profit margins decline, while competitors like Microsoft and Google gain ground in the artificial intelligence (AI) market. - AWS CEO Adam Selipsky defended the company's position in the generative AI race, stating that AWS is not behind. - AWS announced that its servers powered by Nvidia H100 graphics processing units are now available to customers, but only in its North Virginia and Oregon data centers. - The company's second quarter earnings report is expected to address concerns about AWS and AI. - Nvidia is supporting multiple cloud-provider startups, further intensifying competition in the AI market.
Main financial assets discussed in the article: 1. Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) stock 2. Google Cloud segment 3. YouTube division Top 3 key points: 1. Alphabet reported strong revenue growth in Q2 2023, driven by its Search and Cloud services. Google Search and advertising revenues reached $66.3 billion, while Google Cloud segment revenues reached $8 billion. 2. Alphabet showcased significant progress in AI development, with advancements in large language models and the incorporation of AI into various products. The company unveiled the Search Generative Experience (SGE) and leveraged generative AI in advertising and user creativity. 3. YouTube experienced significant growth, with revenues reaching almost $40 billion in the 12 months ending in March. The platform saw increased user engagement, particularly on connected TV screens, and introduced new ad offerings for Shorts and Connected TV. Recommended actions: **Buy** Alphabet Inc. (GOOG, GOOGL) stock. The article highlights the company's strong revenue growth, progress in AI development, and success in the Google Cloud and YouTube divisions. These factors suggest a positive outlook for Alphabet's stock.
### Summary The author discusses two major trends that are driving Amazon's success: fulfillment & delivery and artificial intelligence. ### Facts - Amazon's dominance in e-commerce and delivery is causing difficulties for retailers and traditional delivery services. - Amazon is outgrowing its major retail and delivery competitors in terms of revenue growth. - Amazon's AI capabilities are built around a massive database of supplier/consumer/product linkages, allowing for various applications such as supply chain optimization and fraud prevention. - Amazon's actual performance compared to its peers suggests a positive outlook for shareholders. - Amazon's financials show increasing revenue, gross profit, operating income, net income, and operating cash flow, as well as improving gross profit margin and operating margin. - The biggest risk for Amazon is potential scrutiny from antitrust enforcers.
Disney CEO Bob Iger's search for equity partners for ESPN could result in Amazon acquiring a minority stake in the network to aid in the development of a direct-to-consumer version, joining other potential partners such as the NFL, NBA, MLB, and Verizon.
Analysts suggest that Wall Street is underestimating Amazon's stock due to the company's improved e-commerce fulfillment capabilities and potential for margin growth, as well as its resilient Amazon Web Services cloud business.
Amazon is considering partnering with ESPN as it moves towards becoming a streaming service, a move likely influenced by increasing cord-cutting and decreasing profitability for ESPN.
Amazon's advertising business, which already generates billions in revenue, is projected to become as important as its cloud business and could reach $100 billion in size, as the company uses its vast data and integrated businesses to target customers and drive conversions.
Amazon and its board, including Jeff Bezos, are being sued by an institutional investor over the launch contracts awarded to Bezos' space company, Blue Origin, for Amazon's Project Kuiper mega-constellation.
The Federal Trade Commission may call for an antitrust lawsuit against Amazon, which could be a positive development for investors.
Amazon stock is favored by billionaire investors such as David Tepper, Ken Griffin, and Warren Buffett due to its potential to become a leader in the emerging AI industry, with Amazon's cloud computing platform, AWS, being a major player in the development and deployment of AI models.
Nvidia and Amazon, both of which recently underwent stock splits, are positioned for long-term growth in the AI industry due to their focus on infrastructure and strong economic moats, with Amazon being the safer pick due to its diversified business model and cost-cutting efforts.
Google is facing a historic legal battle against the U.S. government in a generational antitrust case that questions the company's dominance in internet search and its contracts with device makers, including a lucrative deal with Apple.
Google maintains a dominant position in the global search engine market with a 90.7% market share, while its competitors like Bing and Yahoo lag far behind, according to data from Similarweb. However, Google is currently facing a civil antitrust lawsuit by the U.S. Justice Department for alleged anticompetitive practices. Bing, despite its AI-powered version, has not made significant progress in challenging Google's dominance.
Amazon's efforts to improve profitability have been praised, with its stock potentially seeing further upside if its North American retail business continues to become more profitable, according to a research note from Morgan Stanley.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has a major stake in Apple, but investors should consider buying Amazon and Snowflake instead as they have clearer AI strategies and strong growth prospects. Amazon's market dominance in e-commerce, adtech, and cloud computing positions it as a leader in AI innovation, while Snowflake's data management platform and cloud neutrality make it uniquely positioned to enable AI workloads. Both companies have the potential for significant sales growth and offer attractive valuations.
The Department of Justice has filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google, alleging that the company's billion-dollar deals to be the default search engine on smartphones have created a monopoly, and if the trial is successful, Google may be forced to break up its various businesses.
Amazon has made a strategic investment of up to $4 billion in AI company Anthropic, positioning itself as a competitor against Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Nvidia in the AI field, while also gaining access to Anthropic's AI models and Amazon Web Services' computational power.
The Federal Trade Commission has filed an antitrust lawsuit against Amazon, accusing the company of using its dominant market position to manipulate prices and harm competition in ecommerce.
The US Federal Trade Commission is investigating Amazon and Google for alleged monopolistic practices, with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella testifying against Google's attempts to monopolize the search market by paying to make its search engine the default choice for Apple and Android.
Amazon is facing a federal lawsuit that accuses the company of squeezing independent sellers, ultimately causing their businesses to fail.
The antitrust case against Google puts the annual payment it makes to Apple for being the default search engine at risk, which constitutes 14-16% of Apple's profits, but Bernstein analysts believe Apple has options to mitigate the potential impact, such as partnering with another search engine or launching its own.
Multiple government legal actions, including antitrust suits by the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission, are targeting Silicon Valley giants like Google, Facebook, and Amazon over allegations of monopolistic practices and exploitation of independent sellers, with Amazon potentially facing real penalties for its control over the marketplace.
Google could be paying Apple between $18 billion to $20 billion a year to maintain its status as the dominant search engine on the iPhone, potentially generating 14-16% of Apple's annual operating profits, but this agreement may be at risk due to an ongoing antitrust suit.
Amazon Web Services CEO Adam Selipsky believes that the potential for positive innovation in the development of AI is immense, but policymakers need to avoid stifling innovation and put appropriate guardrails and regulatory frameworks in place to prevent misuse of the technology. Despite apprehensions, Amazon has been increasing its investment in AI, but its dominance as a tech giant is being closely scrutinized by lawmakers. Selipsky emphasizes that AWS operates separately from Amazon's ecommerce business and has made significant contributions to the US economy.
Amazon's $4 billion investment in AI start-up Anthropic boosts Amazon Web Services (AWS) and its potential for growth in the cloud computing market, positioning Amazon for long-term gains and improving its profit margins.
Amazon is working to regain sustained growth and profitability after a period of decline, but it is also facing a major legal battle with the U.S. government and potential antitrust scrutiny overseas. Additionally, the company is focusing on generative artificial intelligence and preparing for a busy holiday shopping season.
Despite reporting stronger overall revenue for the quarter, Alphabet's Google Cloud business fell short of analyst expectations, causing Alphabet stock to fall in after-hours trading and raising concerns about the company's competition with Amazon and Microsoft in the cloud-computing market.
Amazon is expected to benefit from the strength in its cloud and advertising businesses, cost-cutting measures, and strong momentum in e-commerce as it reports its third-quarter financials, with analysts remaining bullish on the stock.
Shares of Amazon dropped 3.5% following Alphabet's disappointing earnings report, but long-term investors should still see potential in Amazon's cloud services business, as the opportunity for growth in the cloud market, particularly with the integration of AI, remains significant.
Shares of Google parent Alphabet tumbled more than 9% after its cloud revenue fell short of expectations, but analysts say investors shouldn't worry as the cloud segment accounts for only 11% of the total revenue and growing AI demand could boost future earnings.
Amazon's stock performance will likely be determined by the success of its cloud computing business, Amazon Web Services, following disappointing cloud sales from Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp.
Amazon's stock took a hit ahead of its third-quarter results as analysts raise concerns about its cloud business following Google's slowdown in the same sector.
Amazon reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings, with its shares surging as CEO Andy Jassy highlights the huge opportunity AI presents for the company's cloud business, Amazon Web Services (AWS), in a market worth "tens of billions."
Amazon Web Services (AWS) falls short of Wall Street's projections, but still sees 12% growth in Q3, while Microsoft's Azure gains ground and Alphabet's Google Cloud reports 22% revenue growth, indicating Amazon's dominance in the cloud space is wavering.
Amazon.com remains the leader in the cloud-computing market, but faces competition from Microsoft and Alphabet's Google, with analysts emphasizing the importance of Amazon's artificial-intelligence strategy to maintain its position.
Amazon's stock surges as CEO Andy Jassy highlights the "tens of billions" opportunity in artificial intelligence for the company's cloud business, Amazon Web Services (AWS), which recently launched the Bedrock AI service and invested $1.25 billion in OpenAI competitor Anthropic.