1. The labor market shows signs of modest cooling, but is still hot.
2. The S&P 500 index is approaching its all-time high and continues to trend upward.
3. The banking sector is still struggling, but upcoming earnings reports may provide some optimism.
### Summary
The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages, suggesting that the stock market is not unanchored from reality. However, the performance of long-term US Treasuries has been poor, with even 10-year Treasuries resulting in losses over the last five years. Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain whether it will be enough to bring down inflation rates.
### Facts
- The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages.
- The performance of long-term US Treasuries has been weak, resulting in losses for investors even after accounting for coupon payments.
- Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain if it will bring down inflation rates.
- The nature of the stock market rally suggests that investors are still searching for buying opportunities rather than thinking about selling.
- Energy, industrials, and financials have become favored sectors, while technology stocks have started to decline.
- The Chinese economy is struggling, with retail sales and industrial production growth slowing down.
- The Federal Reserve has expressed concerns about inflation but also noted downside risks to the economy.
###
After a strong surge in June and July, the S&P 500 index has experienced a significant decline in August, with tech stocks being hit particularly hard, as fears of rising interest rates and a slowdown in China weigh on the market.
The S&P 500 Index reached a high in July but has since experienced a pullback of -4.8% in the first three weeks of August, with further downside possible, although the market may be near a turning point.
The S&P 500 has fallen nearly 5% in August, and opinions on whether stocks will rebound are divided among Wall Street firms and market commentators, with some, like Goldman Sachs and Fundstrat, remaining optimistic while others, including Michael Burry and David Rosenberg, are bearish.
Volatility and rising interest rates have caused a pullback in U.S. equity markets, particularly impacting the technology sector, but investors should not panic as pullbacks are normal in a bull market and present buying opportunities. China's deteriorating economic conditions and weak seasonal trends have also contributed to the selling pressure. However, support is expected to be found in the 4,200 to 4,300 range in the S&P 500, and the Federal Reserve's likely end to the rate-hiking cycle and improved earnings should provide fundamental support for investors to buy the dip.
Wall Street is experiencing a tough month as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are on track for their worst monthly performances since December, with several factors including seasonal trends, concerns about the global economy, and the Federal Reserve contributing to the market downturn.
The S&P 500 and other major indices are showing bearish signals, with potential for a significant drop, while the dollar is expected to maintain its upward trajectory and strong economic data could lead to a breakout in interest rates. Additionally, Meta's stock is on a downward trend and the KBW NASDAQ BANK Index is at risk of further decline.
US equity markets were relatively stagnant last week, with major indexes trading up and down around their 200-day moving averages, indicating a lack of direction and potential resistance, while Treasury markets appeared to stabilize despite an inverted yield curve, suggesting a potential recession on the horizon. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish speech on Friday emphasized the need for caution and the possibility of higher interest rates, while Nvidia's strong earnings highlighted the company's dominance in the artificial intelligence sector.
The S&P 500 could experience significant gains in the coming months following the end of the current rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve, with historical data showing positive returns after previous cycles and strong economic indicators supporting this trend. Investors are advised to consider investing in an S&P 500 index fund or industry-leading stocks like Amazon.
The S&P 500 index has seen impressive gains this year, up over 17%, and could potentially reach 5,000 points by the end of 2023, according to expert Andrew Slimmon of Morgan Stanley. Despite a slight pullback in August, strong third-quarter earnings and investor interest in mega-cap tech stocks are expected to drive the market forward.
Summary: U.S. stock markets closed mixed as the key inflation data for July showed steady price increases, with the Nasdaq up 0.1% and extending its winning streak to five days, while the S&P 500 closed down 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%.
Despite the volatility in August, U.S. equities are still having a solid year with gains in the Nasdaq of over 34%, but caution is advised due to stretched valuations and the possibility of sell-offs in the market amidst global economic troubles and stagflation scenarios in Europe.
The top 25 stocks in the S&P 500 outperformed the index in the 35th week of 2023, with tech stocks leading the way, suggesting a return of bull markets and a decrease in recessionary fears; however, market health, the balance between developed and emerging markets, and investor behavior still need to be addressed. Additionally, market correlations have dropped since COVID, and on "down-market" days, correlations are 5% higher than on "up-market" days. Market correlations also decrease during upward economic cycles. Retail investors are showing a preference for dividend-driven investing and investing in AI stocks. The global subsidies race is impacting valuations in tech and leading to supply chain inefficiencies. As a result, there are opportunities for diversification and investment in a wide variety of equities and bonds.
The S&P 500 Index experienced its best week since June, while Bitcoin faced a marginal loss due to the delay of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications by the Securities and Exchange Commission, although analysts remain optimistic about future ETF approvals.
The stock market is still in an uptrend despite a recent pullback, and there is a likelihood of higher stock prices in the near term as long as the market continues to advance within its uptrending channel. Additionally, the recent breakout in the S&P 500 is a bullish sign for the market, and commodity-related stocks have begun to outperform, making them attractive investments.
Stock indices finished today’s trading session in the red, with the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all falling. The technology sector was the session's laggard, while the utilities sector was the leader. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield increased, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve's latest GDPNow reading estimates that the economy will expand by about 5.6% in the third quarter. The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book report, noting a tourism boom but slower spending in other areas. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index came in higher than expected, and mortgage applications fell to their lowest level since 1996. The U.S. trade deficit widened less than expected in July. U.S. stock futures inched lower, and European indices trended lower. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed.
US stocks are experiencing their worst performance in September since 1928, but there are signs that the market could avoid a steep downturn this year, with indicators suggesting more stability and positive gains for the rest of the year, according to Mark Hackett, chief of research at US investment firm Nationwide. However, challenges such as elevated oil prices and inflation could put strain on the stock market and the US economy.
Summary: The Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Friday after a week of losses, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%; however, all three major indexes ended the week lower due to rising oil prices, stronger-than-expected labor market data, and China's iPhone ban.
The stock market opened positively, with the Nasdaq up 0.6%, but later faded; major indexes are below their 50-day moving averages as investors await key economic data midweek.
Stock indices finished today’s trading session in the green, with the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all gaining, while the energy sector fell and the consumer discretionary sector led; individuals held a relatively steady stance on inflation expectations but had growing concerns regarding employment prospects and obtaining credit, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, while Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed confidence in the stability of the U.S. economy, citing controlled inflation and positive employment trends.
The stock market is expected to reach new highs by the end of the year, as a leading bond market indicator signals a bullish trend, according to Bank of America.
US stock futures were mostly steady as the major indexes aimed to extend gains from Thursday's rally, while positive economic data from China and strong performance from British chipmaker Arm added further support.
The major indexes, including the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, finished lower on Friday ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next week, with tech stocks dragging the Nasdaq lower and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both falling below their 50-day moving average.
US stocks remain steady as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and closely watch negotiations in the US auto workers strike.
The senior indexes have failed to accurately represent the average stock for a long time, with small-cap stocks underperforming and a large number of stocks hitting new 12-month lows. Despite this, the rally in bigger names like Apple has provided some relative strength to the senior indexes, but uncertainty surrounding the Fed's interest rate decision and various economic factors suggest more volatility and choppy market action ahead.
The stock market experienced a correction as Treasury yields increased, causing major indexes to break key support levels and leading stocks to suffer damage, while only a few stocks held up relatively well; however, it is currently not a favorable time for new purchases in the market.
Stocks took a hit last week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq decreasing, while the dollar shows potential for a major breakout and rising interest rates pose more trouble for stocks.
About 18% of S&P 500 index members and 17% of Nasdaq Composite index members are currently trading below their respective moving averages and have a 14-day RSI below 30, which suggests oversold conditions and the potential for a minor rebound ahead of the US earnings season.
The recent pullback in the U.S. stock market could potentially lead to a test of the S&P 500 index's 200-day moving average, with a breakdown in the relationship between cyclical and defensive stocks being an early indication of a bearish trend change, according to analysts.
U.S. stocks were mixed with the Dow Jones slipping 0.2%, the S&P 500 unchanged, and the Nasdaq Composite adding 0.22%, while oil prices surged to their highest in over a year and shares of China Evergrande Group were suspended after reporting significant losses, all raising concerns and making it difficult for stocks to gain confidence to climb.
Investors are concerned about a potential showdown for the S&P 500 as stock market commentator, Heisenberg, shares a chart indicating bearish patterns and a major trend line off the October lows, suggesting a sharp drop in the index. Rising bond yields, climbing oil prices, and fears of slowing consumer spending are also factors contributing to investor unease.
U.S. stock futures remain steady as Wall Street faces a slump in September; Micron shares fall after wider-than-expected loss forecast; Meta Platforms unveils new AI-powered products; Evergrande share trading suspended; Oil prices dip after surge in crude stock.
Stocks ended the day higher as the surge in oil, the dollar, and Treasury yields slowed down, with the Nasdaq rising 0.8%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.4%.
U.S. stocks showed mixed performance as Treasury yields rose and a government shutdown was averted, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.6%, the S&P 500 down 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.4%.
The major stock indexes are expected to open lower as the 10-year Treasury yield hits a 16-year high, with investors monitoring employment data for potential impact on interest rates; meanwhile, stock futures in Asia and Europe slumped as the Federal Reserve's message of higher interest rates reverberates worldwide.
Stocks on Wall Street experienced a selloff as rising Treasury yields and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers put pressure on investors and dampened appetite for stocks, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both dropping around 1.1% and the Nasdaq Composite down over 1.5%; however, stocks somewhat recovered from their lows in midday trading as investors digested fresh comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and other indexes took a major hit in the stock market, with the Dow falling more than 500 points and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also experiencing significant losses, as the cost of borrowing money increased and the yield on the Treasury 10-year bond reached a 16-year high.
The US stock market is experiencing a concerning situation with "bad breadth," as the S&P 500 equal-weighted index falls into correction territory and major equity indices give up all their gains for the year, raising risks of heavy reliance on a few megacap stocks.
Stocks slip as U.S. crude futures drop and mortgage rates climb, while investors await payroll data for signs of a slowing job market; electric vehicle stocks like Rivian and Lucid are making moves, and the U.S. Dollar Index rises for its 12th consecutive week. European stocks close mixed, and utilities stocks see their worst year in over a decade due to higher bond yields.
The S&P 500 Index rebounded following a selloff as dip buyers found an overreaction to the blowout US jobs report, driving gains and reversing losses.
Summary:
US stock indexes closed lower as investors awaited monthly employment data and looked for insights into future interest rate directions, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.03%, the S&P 500 down 0.13%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.12%; in Asian markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 declined 0.28%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.41%, China's markets were closed for a holiday, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 1.40%; European markets, including the STOXX 600, Germany's DAX, France's CAC, and the UK's FTSE 100, all saw gains; and in commodities, Crude Oil WTI and Brent were down, Natural Gas was up, and Gold, Silver, and Copper all saw increases.
Despite challenges such as surging Treasury yields and Federal Reserve hawkishness, the equity-investing landscape has shown resilience, with the S&P 500 posting modest gains and the Nasdaq 100 up for the week. Investors remain optimistic about the economy's ability to withstand higher borrowing costs and anticipate positive revenue and earnings growth. Credit markets have remained stable, while volatility has remained muted and profit strength in Corporate America is expected to drive stocks.
U.S. equities rebounded as the S&P 500 increased 0.6% following Fed officials' suggestion of a potential decrease in interest rate hikes, while concerns over conflict in the Middle East caused oil futures to spike and dragged down shares of airlines and cruise lines.
Wall Street stock indices hit their highest in almost three weeks as U.S. stocks remain resilient amid multiple crosscurrents, such as the spike in Treasury yields and the Middle East shock, while the IMF praises the "remarkable" strength of the U.S. economy.
Equity markets opened higher but gave back some gains midday before stabilizing, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both gaining for the day, while narrower indexes like the KBW Bank Index and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index outperformed, and smaller caps outperformed large caps.
US stocks are currently at their most expensive levels compared to the debt market in over two decades, raising concerns of a potential market correction similar to the dot-com crash in 2000. Research has shown that this level of stock valuation has historically triggered major market corrections.
Stock-market experts predict the market will gain about 6.5 percent in the next year, with the S&P 500 index climbing to an average of 4,578, despite rising rates and growing economic uncertainty.
