After a strong surge in June and July, the S&P 500 index has experienced a significant decline in August, with tech stocks being hit particularly hard, as fears of rising interest rates and a slowdown in China weigh on the market.
The S&P 500 Index reached a high in July but has since experienced a pullback of -4.8% in the first three weeks of August, with further downside possible, although the market may be near a turning point.
The S&P 500 has fallen nearly 5% in August, and opinions on whether stocks will rebound are divided among Wall Street firms and market commentators, with some, like Goldman Sachs and Fundstrat, remaining optimistic while others, including Michael Burry and David Rosenberg, are bearish.
The recent price pullback in Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market is not surprising, as most risk assets typically suffer when the S&P 500 falls; however, volatility for both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is declining, which suggests mainstream migration and a potential lack of price-pump potential for Bitcoin.
The Dow and S&P 500 ended slightly lower due to concerns about the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer, while the Nasdaq finished barely in the green; the financial sector fell 0.9%, dragged down by an S&P downgrade of credit ratings of regional U.S. lenders, and investors are awaiting clarity on the rate outlook from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Bitcoin prices experienced a sudden drop last week, with analysts attributing it to large liquidations of perpetual futures and a report that SpaceX had sold the cryptocurrency, while industry insiders have mixed opinions on the impact of spot bitcoin ETFs and Coinbase's investment in Circle.
The S&P 500 has recovered 65% of last year's bear-market drop, but when adjusted for inflation it is only about 45%, highlighting the diminished buying power and implying implications for the economy and future Federal Reserve policy.
The S&P 500 and other major indices are showing bearish signals, with potential for a significant drop, while the dollar is expected to maintain its upward trajectory and strong economic data could lead to a breakout in interest rates. Additionally, Meta's stock is on a downward trend and the KBW NASDAQ BANK Index is at risk of further decline.
This week is expected to bring volatility back to crypto markets due to various events, including the Core PCE Price Index, Nonfarm Payrolls, and SEC decisions on Bitcoin Spot ETFs, while token unlocks and collaborations between Optimism and BASE are also notable updates.
Last week in the stock market resembled a game of punchball, with alternating positive and negative days, but overall the S&P 500 showed a descent of less than 4% over four weeks.
Summary: Despite a dismal August for the stock market, the S&P 500 narrowly avoided a particular negative outcome, setting up for the next test.
The end of a five-month win streak for the S&P 500 is not all bad news, as historical data suggests that after five months of gains, the S&P 500's forward performances six and 12 months later are on average up 82% and 93% of the time, respectively.
The S&P 500 could experience significant gains in the coming months following the end of the current rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve, with historical data showing positive returns after previous cycles and strong economic indicators supporting this trend. Investors are advised to consider investing in an S&P 500 index fund or industry-leading stocks like Amazon.
The S&P 500 index has seen impressive gains this year, up over 17%, and could potentially reach 5,000 points by the end of 2023, according to expert Andrew Slimmon of Morgan Stanley. Despite a slight pullback in August, strong third-quarter earnings and investor interest in mega-cap tech stocks are expected to drive the market forward.
The S&P500 rose on Wednesday, supported by signs of weakness in the labor market and slower economic growth, reinforcing expectations of a Federal Reserve pause next month.
S&P 500 futures remain flat after the index achieved its fourth consecutive positive day, and Salesforce reports better-than-expected earnings and guidance, causing its shares to rise.
Despite economic challenges, the S&P 500 is expected to continue its strong growth, potentially increasing by as much as 11% as the summer season ends, driven by companies like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Slimmon.
The S&P 500 fell while the Nasdaq rose after U.S. inflation data met expectations, suggesting the Federal Reserve may pause its monetary tightening, while Salesforce shares climbed on a positive revenue forecast.
The S&P 500 Index slipped 0.15% after a four-day winning streak, likely indicating a small further decline in prices over the next few sessions.
Bitcoin and major tokens have experienced losses as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delays key ETF decisions, dampening hopes of a long-term recovery.
September is historically the worst month for stocks, but there are 11 S&P 500 stocks, including O'Reilly Automotive, Ameriprise Financial, and United Rentals, that have consistently outperformed the index during September in the past five years.
The S&P 500 rally is expected to fade as economic data supports a higher for longer monetary policy, with weaker job opening data and ADP job report sending rates down and a strong job report and ISM data pushing rates higher, creating challenges for the stock market as financial conditions tighten and leading to lower levels.
The top 25 stocks in the S&P 500 outperformed the index in the 35th week of 2023, with tech stocks leading the way, suggesting a return of bull markets and a decrease in recessionary fears; however, market health, the balance between developed and emerging markets, and investor behavior still need to be addressed. Additionally, market correlations have dropped since COVID, and on "down-market" days, correlations are 5% higher than on "up-market" days. Market correlations also decrease during upward economic cycles. Retail investors are showing a preference for dividend-driven investing and investing in AI stocks. The global subsidies race is impacting valuations in tech and leading to supply chain inefficiencies. As a result, there are opportunities for diversification and investment in a wide variety of equities and bonds.
The stock market is still in an uptrend despite a recent pullback, and there is a likelihood of higher stock prices in the near term as long as the market continues to advance within its uptrending channel. Additionally, the recent breakout in the S&P 500 is a bullish sign for the market, and commodity-related stocks have begun to outperform, making them attractive investments.
The S&P 500 had a good week, rising 2.5% and coming 1.6% below the 2023 high-water mark set in July; however, there is a possibility of a recession if the Fed keeps rates high for longer than necessary.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a decline as analysts predict further declines in the market.
The S&P 500 index is unlikely to reach a record high by the end of 2023 due to factors such as earnings per share and financial conditions, according to Stifel's chief equity strategist.
Stock indexes decline as concerns about future rate hikes and sluggish market performance in September weigh on investor sentiment, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite falling for the third consecutive day and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 on a two-day losing streak.
The S&P 500 has gained 17% year to date, signaling the onset of a new bull market, and investors looking to capitalize on this should consider the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and the Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF, both of which have produced significant gains over the last decade.
Investors are becoming increasingly nervous due to concerns about the Fed potentially increasing interest rates, as well as rising 10-year interest rates and the VIX, which may put pressure on stocks; however, there are also positive factors emerging, such as improving S&P 500 profit estimates and a shift away from data dependence by Fed officials, which suggests a better finish to September is probable.
Summary: The Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Friday after a week of losses, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%; however, all three major indexes ended the week lower due to rising oil prices, stronger-than-expected labor market data, and China's iPhone ban.
U.S stocks are recovering from losses, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both up 0.4%, as tech stocks lead the market higher and investors await key data on inflation this week.
Investors would have been better off buying the S&P 500 instead of adjusting their portfolios in response to Michael Burry's stock-market warning tweets, as the index had an average 6-month annualized gain of 34% following a selection of Burry's tweets from 2019 to 2023, according to Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning.
Dow Jones futures, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, were unchanged after hours as the stock market rally experienced losses, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping below the 50-day line, while energy stocks led and software retreated. Apple stock fell after unveiling the iPhone 15 and other products, while stocks such as Salesforce, Alphabet, General Electric, Shopify, and Nvidia remained in or near buy areas. The CPI inflation report and Adobe earnings are potential market catalysts.
Despite the pressure on the market, the major US equity indexes have held steady near their recent highs, with the S&P 500 up 16.21% year to date and the Nasdaq Composite up 31.6%, raising questions about whether the current market weakness is due to seasonality or potentially something more significant like inflation.
The S&P 500 index has seen impressive gains this year, but one expert believes the rally is coming to an end, citing rising bond yields as the main threat to stock prices.
Dow Jones futures and S&P 500 futures rose slightly as the market rally saw a solid advance with major indexes reclaiming their 50-day moving averages, although caution is still advised for new investments.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies advanced on Friday, but a key technical indicator suggests that losses are likely coming.
The major indexes, including the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, finished lower on Friday ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next week, with tech stocks dragging the Nasdaq lower and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both falling below their 50-day moving average.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the week slightly lower due to a decline on Friday caused by higher bond yields and oil prices, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a small weekly gain.
Wall Street finished the week with a decline in stocks, as the S&P 500 posted its second consecutive losing week, with technology and retail sectors contributing to the slide, while investors await the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate policy meeting.
Investors are fleeing from the ailing utilities sector, as it is the worst performing sector in the S&P 500 this year, with a drop of 8.7%, due to the availability of better yields from Treasuries and CDs.
Almost all S&P 500 sectors experienced losses in the stock market, with consumer discretionary stocks leading the declines, while financials were the only sector in the green.
Despite a perceived undervaluation of the S&P 500, analysts warn of potential volatility in both the stock market and the Bitcoin market due to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which could shape narratives and challenge conventional wisdom. The S&P 500 appears oversold while Bitcoin consolidates with a potential target of $22,000.
Summary: Dow Jones futures, S&P 500 futures, and Nasdaq futures all rose overnight, while the stock market correction continued with heavy losses as the 10-year Treasury yields surged, leading to the S&P 500 undercutting its August lows and the Nasdaq and Dow Jones coming close to doing the same.
Stocks plunged on Thursday and the S&P 500 suffered its worst day since March as increasing investor risk aversion and a surge in bond yields raised concerns about the US economy and impacted both stock and bond investors.
