The S&P 500 Just Avoided an Unwanted Statistic. This Is the Next Test.
Summary: Despite a dismal August for the stock market, the S&P 500 narrowly avoided a particular negative outcome, setting up for the next test.
Topics
Posted 8/29/2023, 10:49:00 AM
barrons.com
Relevant topic timeline:
After a strong surge in June and July, the S&P 500 index has experienced a significant decline in August, with tech stocks being hit particularly hard, as fears of rising interest rates and a slowdown in China weigh on the market.
The S&P 500 Index reached a high in July but has since experienced a pullback of -4.8% in the first three weeks of August, with further downside possible, although the market may be near a turning point.
The S&P 500 has fallen nearly 5% in August, and opinions on whether stocks will rebound are divided among Wall Street firms and market commentators, with some, like Goldman Sachs and Fundstrat, remaining optimistic while others, including Michael Burry and David Rosenberg, are bearish.
The Dow and S&P 500 ended slightly lower due to concerns about the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer, while the Nasdaq finished barely in the green; the financial sector fell 0.9%, dragged down by an S&P downgrade of credit ratings of regional U.S. lenders, and investors are awaiting clarity on the rate outlook from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The S&P 500 has yet to see two consecutive up days in August, signaling a lack of investor conviction and potentially foreshadowing further declines in the stock market rally.
Last week in the stock market resembled a game of punchball, with alternating positive and negative days, but overall the S&P 500 showed a descent of less than 4% over four weeks.
The S&P500 rose on Wednesday, supported by signs of weakness in the labor market and slower economic growth, reinforcing expectations of a Federal Reserve pause next month.
The S&P 500 ended lower and the Nasdaq higher as U.S. inflation data met expectations, signaling a potential pause in monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, while Salesforce shares climbed following a positive revenue forecast.
The S&P 500 Index slipped 0.15% after a four-day winning streak, likely indicating a small further decline in prices over the next few sessions.
September is historically the worst month for stocks, but there are 11 S&P 500 stocks, including O'Reilly Automotive, Ameriprise Financial, and United Rentals, that have consistently outperformed the index during September in the past five years.
The S&P 500 Index experienced its best week since June, while Bitcoin faced a marginal loss due to the delay of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications by the Securities and Exchange Commission, although analysts remain optimistic about future ETF approvals.
The S&P 500 has had a strong performance this year, but reaching a new record high seems unlikely at this point.
Investors would have been better off buying the S&P 500 instead of adjusting their portfolios in response to Michael Burry's stock-market warning tweets, as the index had an average 6-month annualized gain of 34% following a selection of Burry's tweets from 2019 to 2023, according to Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning.
Wall Street finished the week with a decline in stocks, as the S&P 500 posted its second consecutive losing week, with technology and retail sectors contributing to the slide, while investors await the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate policy meeting.
Almost all S&P 500 sectors experienced losses in the stock market, with consumer discretionary stocks leading the declines, while financials were the only sector in the green.
Despite a perceived undervaluation of the S&P 500, analysts warn of potential volatility in both the stock market and the Bitcoin market due to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which could shape narratives and challenge conventional wisdom. The S&P 500 appears oversold while Bitcoin consolidates with a potential target of $22,000.
Stocks plunged on Thursday and the S&P 500 suffered its worst day since March as increasing investor risk aversion and a surge in bond yields raised concerns about the US economy and impacted both stock and bond investors.