The Week Of Aug 21 - Aug 25: A 'Punchball Market'?
Last week in the stock market resembled a game of punchball, with alternating positive and negative days, but overall the S&P 500 showed a descent of less than 4% over four weeks.
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Posted 8/29/2023, 5:16:42 AM
seekingalpha.com
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After a strong surge in June and July, the S&P 500 index has experienced a significant decline in August, with tech stocks being hit particularly hard, as fears of rising interest rates and a slowdown in China weigh on the market.
The S&P 500 Index reached a high in July but has since experienced a pullback of -4.8% in the first three weeks of August, with further downside possible, although the market may be near a turning point.
The S&P 500 has fallen nearly 5% in August, and opinions on whether stocks will rebound are divided among Wall Street firms and market commentators, with some, like Goldman Sachs and Fundstrat, remaining optimistic while others, including Michael Burry and David Rosenberg, are bearish.
The S&P 500 has recovered 65% of last year's bear-market drop, but when adjusted for inflation it is only about 45%, highlighting the diminished buying power and implying implications for the economy and future Federal Reserve policy.
The S&P 500 is close to reaching a record high, signaling the upcoming arrival of a new U.S. bull market, and investors should consider buying stocks like Roku and Datadog that have strong growth potential.
The S&P 500 has yet to see two consecutive up days in August, signaling a lack of investor conviction and potentially foreshadowing further declines in the stock market rally.
A potential relief rally in the stock market is expected to start the week, but the upside is limited due to uncertainties about interest rates and the recent volatility, according to a Wall Street technician. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have experienced pullbacks, but a relief rally may be possible in the near term. However, the long-term trend remains uncertain, and the risk of a downturn in the financial system is elevated.
Summary: Despite a dismal August for the stock market, the S&P 500 narrowly avoided a particular negative outcome, setting up for the next test.
The end of a five-month win streak for the S&P 500 is not all bad news, as historical data suggests that after five months of gains, the S&P 500's forward performances six and 12 months later are on average up 82% and 93% of the time, respectively.
The S&P 500 could experience significant gains in the coming months following the end of the current rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve, with historical data showing positive returns after previous cycles and strong economic indicators supporting this trend. Investors are advised to consider investing in an S&P 500 index fund or industry-leading stocks like Amazon.
The S&P 500 index has seen impressive gains this year, up over 17%, and could potentially reach 5,000 points by the end of 2023, according to expert Andrew Slimmon of Morgan Stanley. Despite a slight pullback in August, strong third-quarter earnings and investor interest in mega-cap tech stocks are expected to drive the market forward.
The S&P500 rose on Wednesday, supported by signs of weakness in the labor market and slower economic growth, reinforcing expectations of a Federal Reserve pause next month.
Stocks are expected to rally next month, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching its previous highs, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee, who cited reasons such as a cooling economy, no further interest rate hikes from the Fed, overly bearish sentiment in August, and historically strong performance in September.
Despite economic challenges, the S&P 500 is expected to continue its strong growth, potentially increasing by as much as 11% as the summer season ends, driven by companies like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Slimmon.
The S&P 500 fell while the Nasdaq rose after U.S. inflation data met expectations, suggesting the Federal Reserve may pause its monetary tightening, while Salesforce shares climbed on a positive revenue forecast.
The S&P 500 Index slipped 0.15% after a four-day winning streak, likely indicating a small further decline in prices over the next few sessions.
The stock market could reach record highs by the end of the year, as historical data suggests positive returns when stocks are up 10%-20% heading into September, according to Bank of America.
The S&P 500 rally is expected to fade as economic data supports a higher for longer monetary policy, with weaker job opening data and ADP job report sending rates down and a strong job report and ISM data pushing rates higher, creating challenges for the stock market as financial conditions tighten and leading to lower levels.
Bank of America's technical strategist believes that despite historically poor September performance, the S&P 500's year-to-date rally positions it for further gains, with the potential for an 8% climb by the end of the year.
The S&P 500 Index experienced its best week since June, while Bitcoin faced a marginal loss due to the delay of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications by the Securities and Exchange Commission, although analysts remain optimistic about future ETF approvals.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has outperformed the S&P 500 even if its stock price crashed by 99%, with a gain of nearly 3,800,000% between 1965 and 2022 and stock currently at record highs.
The stock market is still in an uptrend despite a recent pullback, and there is a likelihood of higher stock prices in the near term as long as the market continues to advance within its uptrending channel. Additionally, the recent breakout in the S&P 500 is a bullish sign for the market, and commodity-related stocks have begun to outperform, making them attractive investments.
The S&P 500 had a good week, rising 2.5% and coming 1.6% below the 2023 high-water mark set in July; however, there is a possibility of a recession if the Fed keeps rates high for longer than necessary.
Stocks fell in morning trading on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 down 0.7%, as big technology stocks and healthcare stocks experienced losses, while several companies made significant moves after reporting earnings and other updates.
The S&P 500 has had a strong performance this year, but reaching a new record high seems unlikely at this point.
Stocks are expected to open the week higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% in premarket trading, as investors look ahead to key U.S. economic data and show interest in companies such as Lennar, Arm, Tesla, and Oracle.
Investors would have been better off buying the S&P 500 instead of adjusting their portfolios in response to Michael Burry's stock-market warning tweets, as the index had an average 6-month annualized gain of 34% following a selection of Burry's tweets from 2019 to 2023, according to Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning.
The S&P 500 is unlikely to experience a similar rally to the one seen 11 months ago despite the increase in U.S. consumer price inflation, according to chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the week slightly lower due to a decline on Friday caused by higher bond yields and oil prices, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a small weekly gain.
Bank of America predicts that the S&P 500 could surge over 25% within the next year based on a bullish indicator, with low long-term profit growth expectations among analysts signaling potential gains.
Wall Street finished the week with a decline in stocks, as the S&P 500 posted its second consecutive losing week, with technology and retail sectors contributing to the slide, while investors await the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate policy meeting.
Despite a perceived undervaluation of the S&P 500, analysts warn of potential volatility in both the stock market and the Bitcoin market due to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which could shape narratives and challenge conventional wisdom. The S&P 500 appears oversold while Bitcoin consolidates with a potential target of $22,000.
The decline in job openings could have negative implications for the US stock market, as job openings and the S&P 500 have shown a strong correlation since 2001, with job openings currently down 27% from their peak in March 2022.
Stocks plunged on Thursday and the S&P 500 suffered its worst day since March as increasing investor risk aversion and a surge in bond yields raised concerns about the US economy and impacted both stock and bond investors.