The US banking industry could face a significant drop in stock prices within the next 16 months if the economy enters a recession, according to macro guru Hugh Hendry.
Main topic: Decrease in startup job market in the Triangle
Key points:
1. Startup job postings in the Triangle have reached the lowest point since tracking began, falling below 10,000.
2. The decrease in job postings during July and August is considered normal due to summer hours and vacations.
3. Overall, startup job postings are down 60.4% compared to the same time last year.
The stock market experienced a sharp decline as early gains turned into a selloff, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all falling; concerns over rising bond yields and inflation contributed to the sell-off.
Despite concerns over the financial health of the US consumer, projections for a stock market decline may be unfounded as consumers have the capacity to spend, with low debt levels, significant assets, untapped home equity, low mortgage rates, and solid retail spending.
The number of job openings in the US fell to 8.8 million at the end of July, indicating a slowing economy, with declines seen in professional and business services, healthcare, and state and local government sectors, while the information industry and transportation saw increases in job openings. Additionally, consumer confidence dipped in August as Americans grew more concerned about rising prices of gas and groceries, and home prices continued to increase in June.
The US labor market shows signs of easing as job openings decline for the third consecutive month, worker quits decrease, and layoffs increase, indicating a more balanced state, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. job openings reach lowest level in nearly 2.5 years in July, signaling a slowdown in the labor market and potential impact on interest rates.
Stocks rally as job openings decline in July, bonds rally on softening job market and odds of interest rate pause, court rules SEC needs more reasoning to block Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF, and other market movements.
U.S. hiring in August fell below expectations, signaling a cooling labor market due to higher interest rates, with companies adding 177,000 jobs compared to the predicted 195,000 gain, marking the worst month for job creation since March.
Job openings and layoffs decreased in July, indicating a return to pre-pandemic labor market patterns, with economists attributing the drop to a decline in turnover rather than contraction.
As the labor market begins to shift back to normal after the pandemic, job openings are declining and the rate of people quitting jobs is decreasing, indicating a more balanced market, although unemployment is still low and there are still opportunities for skilled workers.
The US job market is cooling down, with signs of weakening and a slowdown in momentum, which may allow the Federal Reserve to ease inflation pressure through weaker job creation and reduced demand.
The stock market has been stagnant for over a month and it is expected to decline in its next move.
U.S. manufacturers reported a decline in business activity for the 10th consecutive month in August, but the declines are becoming less widespread, suggesting that the trough in the cycle may be approaching.
US stocks are experiencing their worst performance in September since 1928, but there are signs that the market could avoid a steep downturn this year, with indicators suggesting more stability and positive gains for the rest of the year, according to Mark Hackett, chief of research at US investment firm Nationwide. However, challenges such as elevated oil prices and inflation could put strain on the stock market and the US economy.
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits unexpectedly declined last week to the lowest level since February, indicating that the US job market remains relatively tight despite recent signs of softening.
The stock market opened positively, with the Nasdaq up 0.6%, but later faded; major indexes are below their 50-day moving averages as investors await key economic data midweek.
The US economy is facing a looming recession, with weakness in certain sectors, but investors should not expect a significant number of interest-rate cuts next year, according to Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. She points out that leading indicators have severely deteriorated, indicating trouble ahead, and predicts a full-blown recession as the most likely outcome. Despite this, the stock market has been defying rate increases and performing well.
The jobs market is currently in a relatively benign position, with unemployment rates and wage growth neither extremely high nor low, but leading indicators suggest a potential rise in unemployment and a continued deceleration of wage growth in the coming quarters.
The job market in the United States has cooled down, with hiring declining for the third consecutive month, and data from LinkedIn shows that various industries are facing unique hiring challenges; however, the information technology industry is expected to see a boost in employment in the fourth quarter. To advance your career, focus on getting noticed by key executives for a positive annual review.
The number of job layoffs in the U.S. remains near a record low despite rising interest rates and high inflation.
The stock market's decline has intensified recently, leading to concerns about how far it could fall.
US small-cap and industrial stocks are dropping, typically signaling a recession, but some investors are dismissing the moves as noise for now, with hope for stocks coming in the form of anticipated earnings season and the Federal Reserve's forecast of stronger economic growth.
The S&P Semiconductors Select Industry Index is showing signs of decline, which could have negative implications for the overall stock market.
The recent decline in the US equity market is validating concerns about its lopsided nature, with a small number of top-performing stocks leading the market lower and the remaining companies struggling to make gains, potentially exacerbating losses in a rising Treasury yield environment.
Wall Street's forecasts of corporate earnings are expected to decline, which could impact the stock market.
The economy's performance, including consumer spending, labor market conditions, and inflation, suggests a temporary positive outlook, but it may not be sufficient to prevent a decline in stock prices.
The current stock market decline, driven by a "confluence of factors," does not indicate a financial crisis and presents an opportunity for investors to buy stocks, according to DataTrek Research.
The labor market is showing resilience, but the rate of hiring has significantly slowed down, possibly due to fewer temporary job opportunities and working hours.
Summary: The U.S. stock market had a bad quarter, with all indexes falling, while the World Bank lowered its growth forecast for developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific, and China's demand for commodities continues to grow despite the downgrade. Additionally, a last-minute spending bill was passed to avoid a government shutdown, and this week's focus will be on the labor market.
The U.S. stock market has seen a sharp rise in 2023, but the gains have been driven by a small number of technology companies, while the overall market performance has been lackluster compared to previous years, indicating a potential risk for investors.
The US stock market is experiencing back-to-back down months, while facing challenges such as an autoworkers strike, potential government shutdown, and concerns about inflation and interest rates.
Job openings rose in August after three consecutive months of decline, with 9.6 million job openings recorded, indicating a tightening labor market and potential impacts on inflation and interest rates.
The stock market sinks as Wall Street focuses on the downside of a strong job market, with rising Treasury yields putting pressure on stocks and making borrowing more expensive for companies and households.
Stocks on Wall Street fell in early trading on Tuesday as rising Treasury yields and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers dampened investor sentiment. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down over 1.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled about 0.9%, and the S&P 500 dropped almost 1.1%. Additionally, the number of open jobs in the US increased in August, raising questions about whether the job market is cooling fast enough to satisfy the Federal Reserve as it considers more interest rate hikes to combat inflation.
Pre-market futures are down as the stock market continues to struggle, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all showing declines, while the 10-year bond yield remains high and the inverted yield curve persists. Job openings are expected to be flat in the JOLTS report for August, reflecting a decline from pre-pandemic levels, and job quits are at a 2.5-year low, indicating a decrease in employee confidence. This week's jobs data will provide further insights into the state of the economy, with interest rates and future Fed decisions being influenced by the upcoming Q3 earnings season.
The US economy added 89,000 private-sector jobs in September, falling well below expectations of 160,000 jobs, indicating some labor market weakness despite other signs of strength.
The likelihood of the US avoiding a recession has decreased, as two factors, including a surge in interest rates and the potential for resurgent inflation, could push the economy into a downturn, says economist Mohamed El-Erian.
The stock market is currently experiencing the most significant U.S. Treasury bond bear market in history, while JPMorgan's Chief Market Strategist predicts potential turbulence and a recession on the horizon; meanwhile, stocks opened lower on Friday morning after the September non-farm payrolls data, and U.S. futures are shaky as traders await the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls report, with experts predicting lower job additions and a potential fall in the unemployment rate.
The stock market initially reacted negatively to September's strong job report, but later rebounded as evidence of a cooling job market and minimal wage growth tempered fears of inflation, leading to uncertainty about potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
The US job market added fewer jobs than expected in June, indicating a slower rate of growth, but economists suggest that this is a positive sign of a soft landing for the economy.
Economists are predicting that the U.S. economy is less likely to experience a recession in the next year, with the likelihood dropping below 50% for the first time since last year, thanks to factors such as falling inflation, the Federal Reserve halting interest rate hikes, and a strong labor market.
Stocks rise and bond prices decline as markets focus on corporate earnings and the strength of the U.S. economy, rather than Middle East tensions, signaling a reversal of last week's risk-off sentiment.
The stock market's recent lackluster phase may have a glimmer of hope based on historical trends, with data showing that in years when the S&P 500 gained more than 1.4% in the first five days of October and had negative performance the previous year, the market advanced about 86% of the time; however, the near-term outlook may not be as optimistic, with October historically seeing a negative change and geopolitical tensions potentially dampening economic growth.