1. The labor market shows signs of modest cooling, but is still hot.
2. The S&P 500 index is approaching its all-time high and continues to trend upward.
3. The banking sector is still struggling, but upcoming earnings reports may provide some optimism.
Investors are eagerly awaiting news about the health of the US labor market, with reports on job openings, labor turnover, employment, and job cuts expected this week, as the Federal Reserve aims to cool the economy to fight inflation caused by higher labor costs.
Stock futures waver ahead of new readings on the U.S. economy, including consumer-confidence and job-openings data, as investors keep an eye on inflation and the August employment report.
Wall Street is calm ahead of key economic reports that could provide insight into the job market, inflation, and potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve, while consumer confidence and job opening reports are expected to remain strong in August.
Wall Street's main indexes rise as drop in job openings and decrease in consumer confidence fuel hopes of a pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
U.S. stock futures pause as investors await JOLTs labor market data and the upcoming jobs report, with expectations for interest rates influencing market sentiment.
U.S. job openings reach lowest level in nearly 2.5 years in July, signaling a slowdown in the labor market and potential impact on interest rates.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent speech outlined three tests for incoming data to prevent further rate hikes, and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey revealed a decrease in job openings, leading to a rise in the S&P 500 and a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield.
Investors are speculating about the likelihood of a recession after recent data showed a decline in job openings, and Key Advisors Wealth Management CEO Eddie Ghabour believes that the market is not prepared for a recession and it could bring about significant volatility. Ghabour highlights factors such as the JOLTS data, earnings season results, and housing market data to support his recession forecast. He also mentions concerns about rising inflation and its impact on the bond market. Ghabour predicts that a recession could lead to a double-digit drop in equity markets and suggests buying the long end of the Treasury curve as a top trade if a recession occurs.
Stocks rally as job openings decline in July, bonds rally on softening job market and odds of interest rate pause, court rules SEC needs more reasoning to block Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF, and other market movements.
The rate of people quitting their jobs has returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating a decline in workers' advantage and a cooling labor market influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, which have led to worsening job prospects and decreased consumer confidence.
The U.S. jobs market shows signs of cooling as Labor Day approaches, giving investors relief from concerns about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate hike. However, global market rally and uncertainty around China's market rebound indicate that risks still persist.
U.S. stock futures rise ahead of inflation and jobs data, with the key jobs report on Friday being the main focus for investors as they assess the possibility of interest rate changes.
The August jobs report is highly anticipated as investors assess the health of the labor market amidst rising interest rates and inflation, with projections indicating an increase in hiring and a steady unemployment rate, but potential disruptions from ongoing strikes and bankruptcies could affect the data. The report is closely watched by the Federal Reserve for signs of labor market softening as they grapple with inflation, and while the labor market has remained tight, there are indications of a gradual slowdown. Job openings have decreased, along with resignations, pointing to a labor market that is cooling.
U.S. stocks rose after August jobs data showed a slowdown in the pace of job gains, calming investor concerns about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.5%, the S&P 500 up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.3%.
Summary: The stock market shows signs of a rally, with major indexes surpassing the 50-day line and Treasury yields decreasing, growth stocks are leading, and software companies like Salesforce, MongoDB, and CrowdStrike reporting positive earnings; meanwhile, Amazon and Shopify announce a deeper partnership, and Tesla unveils an upgraded Model 3 while also lowering prices. Additionally, a near-perfect jobs report and tamed inflation data suggest that the Fed may not continue with rate hikes.
Stock markets showed signs of improvement last week, fueled by hopes of a Goldilocks economic scenario, despite downward revisions in Q2 GDP growth and a slowdown in housing prices, while robust hiring and a decline in wage growth raised concerns about a cooling job market. The strength of U.S. consumers and the moderation of the Consumer Confidence index are factors that could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on inflation, with investors advised to rely on trustworthy data and analysis. Noteworthy upcoming earnings and dividend announcements include Zscaler, Gitlab, GameStop, C3ai, American Eagle, DocuSign, and Kroger. Key economic reports this week will focus on Factory Orders, ISM Services PMI, and Q2 Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
Investors are becoming increasingly nervous due to concerns about the Fed potentially increasing interest rates, as well as rising 10-year interest rates and the VIX, which may put pressure on stocks; however, there are also positive factors emerging, such as improving S&P 500 profit estimates and a shift away from data dependence by Fed officials, which suggests a better finish to September is probable.
The US economy is facing a looming recession, with weakness in certain sectors, but investors should not expect a significant number of interest-rate cuts next year, according to Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. She points out that leading indicators have severely deteriorated, indicating trouble ahead, and predicts a full-blown recession as the most likely outcome. Despite this, the stock market has been defying rate increases and performing well.
The upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting is generating less attention than usual, indicating that the Fed's job of pursuing maximum employment and price stability is seen as successful, with labor market data and inflation trends supporting this view.
Summary: The markets have experienced various shocks this week, with the most significant one coming from the Federal Reserve, making labor data more crucial than Fed discussions.
The decline in job openings could have negative implications for the US stock market, as job openings and the S&P 500 have shown a strong correlation since 2001, with job openings currently down 27% from their peak in March 2022.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, which will be released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is expected to show steady job openings in August, with around 8.8 million positions available, and the data will be closely watched by Federal Reserve officials and market participants for insights into the supply-demand dynamics of the labor market.
The major stock indexes are expected to open lower as the 10-year Treasury yield hits a 16-year high, with investors monitoring employment data for potential impact on interest rates; meanwhile, stock futures in Asia and Europe slumped as the Federal Reserve's message of higher interest rates reverberates worldwide.
Job openings rose in August after three consecutive months of decline, with 9.6 million job openings recorded, indicating a tightening labor market and potential impacts on inflation and interest rates.
Morningstar's chief U.S. market strategist, Dave Sekera, is closely watching economic reports, including the ISM and PMI readings, as well as payrolls and unemployment data, while expecting a slowing rate of economic growth but no recession; Sekera also discusses the rising yields on the 10-year Treasury, their impact on the stock and bond markets, and provides insights into sector and investment style performance and valuation heading into the fourth quarter
Stock indices finished in positive territory, with the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all posting gains, while the energy sector experienced losses; meanwhile, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield decreased and the Two-Year Treasury yield also saw a decline. The Factory Orders report showed an increase in new purchase orders placed with manufacturers, beating expectations. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index indicated a slight contraction in the non-manufacturing sector, and the ADP jobs growth data showed a slowdown in job growth and wages. U.S. Futures opened lower following higher-than-anticipated JOLTs jobs opening data. Asian markets ended mixed, while European indices traded in the red.
The September jobs report is highly anticipated by investors as they look for clues about the health of the labor market amidst higher interest rates and inflation, with projections of increased hiring and a decrease in the unemployment rate, although private sector hiring may slow and wage growth may moderate.
U.S. stock futures were flat on Friday morning as traders awaited the release of the September jobs report, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 0.05%, S&P 500 futures down 0.07%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.04%. Investors are hoping for a softer jobs report to ease concerns over rising bond yields.
The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report will test Wall Street's fears of a strong labor market potentially leading to high interest rates and a weak stock market, as economists predict a net increase of 170,000 new jobs in September.
U.S. stocks dipped slightly as investors awaited the September job report, while European stocks rose; the 10-year Treasury yield remains high, jobless claims inched up but remained low, tensions between Serbia and Kosovo raise concerns of potential conflict, bond king Bill Gross is not optimistic about bonds or stocks, and trading volume was subdued as investors braced for the September jobs report.
Concerns surround the upcoming release of U.S. payrolls data and how hawkish the Federal Reserve needs to be, as global markets experience a period of calm following a tumultuous week that saw Treasury yields rise to 16-year highs, crude oil prices drop, equities decline, and the yen strengthen. Japanese government bond yields are also causing concern, as investor sentiment towards the Bank of Japan's stimulus remains low.
U.S. stocks dipped as investors awaited the September jobs report, while Asian markets traded higher; the 10-year Treasury yield remains at an elevated level and could cause a 20% sell-off in the S&P 500, according to JPMorgan Chase's Marko Kolanovic; China plans to ease rules on data exports, potentially benefiting foreign companies; the September slump in stocks presents a "tremendous opportunity" for value investors; trading volume was subdued as investors braced for the storm that is the September jobs report, which will determine the market's direction.
US stock futures fell and Treasury yields surged after the September jobs report revealed that the economy added twice as many jobs as expected, increasing anticipation for another rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
Investors are awaiting the jobs report to determine the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates, with wage growth and revisions to previous monthly totals being key factors to watch, amidst indications that the economy is less sensitive to rising interest rates due to lower household and corporate debt levels.
The stock market is currently experiencing the most significant U.S. Treasury bond bear market in history, while JPMorgan's Chief Market Strategist predicts potential turbulence and a recession on the horizon; meanwhile, stocks opened lower on Friday morning after the September non-farm payrolls data, and U.S. futures are shaky as traders await the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls report, with experts predicting lower job additions and a potential fall in the unemployment rate.
The U.S. Treasury yield surge may continue as a strong jobs report supports the case for more tightening from the Federal Reserve, which is bad news for investors seeking relief from rising Treasury yields.
Dow Jones futures rose slightly before the open as the September jobs report is expected to show a gain of 160,000 jobs and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 3.7%, while Tesla, Exxon Mobil, and Taiwan Semiconductor were in focus before the open.
Amid concerns about high oil prices, sticky inflation, and rising wages, investors may be poised to panic, but a closer look reveals a more positive long-term outlook with solid job market, moderating inflation, and decent growth.
The latest U.S. Jobs Report shows 336,000 new jobs added in September, exceeding expectations and indicating a strong economy that may lead to another rate hike from the Fed. Higher Treasury yields may result in more volatility in stocks and impact sectors such as mortgages and finance. However, this may also present attractive buying opportunities in beaten-down market sectors. Investors should conduct solid research and diversify their portfolios.
The U.S. stock market is currently trading at a discount to fair value, and Morningstar expects rates to come down faster due to optimism on inflation; strong growth is projected in Q3, but the economy may slow down in Q4, and inflation is expected to fall in 2023 and reach the Fed's 2% target in 2024. The report also provides outlooks for various sectors, including technology, energy, and utilities, and highlights some top stock picks. The fixed-income outlook suggests that while interest rates may rise in the short term, rates are expected to come down over time, making it a good time for longer-term fixed-income investments. The corporate bond market has outperformed this year, and although bankruptcies and downgrades may increase, investors are still being adequately compensated for the risks.
Dow Jones futures rose slightly while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures fell; Treasury yields retreated and crude oil spiked as U.S. sanctions on Russian crude sales tightened; UnitedHealth, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, PNC Financial Services, and BlackRock reported their earnings; the stock market rally retreated after an inflation report and a poorly received Treasury auction; Apple and Microsoft stocks edged higher while Google and Meta Platforms fell; Dow Jones futures rose slightly; the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell; the stock market rally struggled at key levels; growth ETFs slumped; megacap stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Nvidia, Amazon, and Tesla were down a fraction; investors should be cautious and ready to reduce or exit positions if necessary.
Recent layoffs in the tech sector have raised concerns about the job market, but there is evidence that Americans are still spending and businesses are quickly absorbing any job losses, indicating that there is no imminent crisis in the labor market, according to economists. The labor market is cooling from the post-pandemic boom, but it remains strong overall, and the recent layoffs are concentrated in specific sectors. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's high interest rates may slow down hiring, but experts do not expect a significant increase in unemployment or mass layoffs in the near future.
Financial markets are preparing for a potentially significant week as the Federal Reserve meeting, U.S. employment data, and Apple's earnings could determine the future trajectory of stocks and bonds for the rest of the year.
