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BofA: S&P 500 Could See 25% Surge in 2023 Based on Profit Growth Expectations

  • S&P 500 could surge 25% in next year based on bullish indicator from BofA
  • Indicator measures long-term profit growth expectations among analysts
  • Current expectations near record lows, signaling high pessimism
  • High pessimism typically leads to strong market returns in next year
  • BofA disagrees with low growth forecasts, sees upside for energy and other sectors
businessinsider.com
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The S&P 500 Index reached a high in July but has since experienced a pullback of -4.8% in the first three weeks of August, with further downside possible, although the market may be near a turning point.
The S&P 500 has fallen nearly 5% in August, and opinions on whether stocks will rebound are divided among Wall Street firms and market commentators, with some, like Goldman Sachs and Fundstrat, remaining optimistic while others, including Michael Burry and David Rosenberg, are bearish.
The S&P 500 is nearing a new bull market, potentially leading to stock market growth, and investors should consider stocks like Amazon and Mastercard based on the holdings of Wall Street billionaires and their solid growth prospects.
The S&P 500 is showing signs of a new bull market, but some experts are cautious and want to wait until the index reaches its previous high, meanwhile, there are two stocks, Sea Limited and Upstart Holdings, that have the potential to more than double in value over the next 12 to 18 months based on analysts' price targets.
Bank of America believes that the stock market will continue to rise as investors' bullish sentiment contradicts their conservative portfolio positioning, suggesting there is still upside potential until hedge funds increase their exposure to cyclical and high-beta stocks and economic conditions deteriorate considerably.
The S&P 500 has recovered 65% of last year's bear-market drop, but when adjusted for inflation it is only about 45%, highlighting the diminished buying power and implying implications for the economy and future Federal Reserve policy.
The S&P 500 is close to reaching a record high, signaling the upcoming arrival of a new U.S. bull market, and investors should consider buying stocks like Roku and Datadog that have strong growth potential.
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel predicts that the stock market will continue to rise into the end of the year, with the S&P 500 potentially surging 25% and gaining an additional 9% if the Federal Reserve acknowledges falling inflation and refrains from further interest rate hikes.
The S&P 500 has rallied in 2023 due to factors such as cooling inflation, a strong economy, and a positive outlook for earnings, but concerns over credit market volatility, monetary policy uncertainty, and steep valuations pose risks to the bull market rally.
The S&P 500 could experience significant gains in the coming months following the end of the current rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve, with historical data showing positive returns after previous cycles and strong economic indicators supporting this trend. Investors are advised to consider investing in an S&P 500 index fund or industry-leading stocks like Amazon.
The S&P 500 index has seen impressive gains this year, up over 17%, and could potentially reach 5,000 points by the end of 2023, according to expert Andrew Slimmon of Morgan Stanley. Despite a slight pullback in August, strong third-quarter earnings and investor interest in mega-cap tech stocks are expected to drive the market forward.
The S&P500 rose on Wednesday, supported by signs of weakness in the labor market and slower economic growth, reinforcing expectations of a Federal Reserve pause next month.
Despite economic challenges, the S&P 500 is expected to continue its strong growth, potentially increasing by as much as 11% as the summer season ends, driven by companies like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Slimmon.
The S&P 500 fell while the Nasdaq rose after U.S. inflation data met expectations, suggesting the Federal Reserve may pause its monetary tightening, while Salesforce shares climbed on a positive revenue forecast.
Bank of America's technical strategist believes that despite historically poor September performance, the S&P 500's year-to-date rally positions it for further gains, with the potential for an 8% climb by the end of the year.
The S&P 500 had a good week, rising 2.5% and coming 1.6% below the 2023 high-water mark set in July; however, there is a possibility of a recession if the Fed keeps rates high for longer than necessary.
The S&P 500 has gained 17% year to date, signaling the onset of a new bull market, and investors looking to capitalize on this should consider the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and the Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF, both of which have produced significant gains over the last decade.
The S&P 500 has had a strong performance this year, but reaching a new record high seems unlikely at this point.
Investors would have been better off buying the S&P 500 instead of adjusting their portfolios in response to Michael Burry's stock-market warning tweets, as the index had an average 6-month annualized gain of 34% following a selection of Burry's tweets from 2019 to 2023, according to Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning.
Despite its high valuation, a strategist predicts that the S&P 500 can still continue to rise.
Bank of America's stock-market strategist has increased her year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 4,600, predicting a 3.5% climb for the large-cap benchmark.
The S&P 500 is expected to rise 13% by June 2024, according to a historical correlation between first-half returns and subsequent 12-month gains, indicating a potentially bullish outlook for the stock market.
The recent market pullback continues as the S&P 500 is down 2.9% for the week and 5.9% below its high-water mark, but the broadening of market participation is a positive indicator for the sustainability of the bull market.
The S&P 500's top seven stocks have surged more than 50% this year, while the rest of the index has only risen about 5%, highlighting a growing performance gap.
The S&P 500's potential for a long-term bull market relies on it surpassing a key level.
Technical analyst John Salama predicts that the S&P 500 will regain positive momentum and has identified five stocks that he believes can rise up to 50% by the end of October, including SkyWest, Tesla, Carvana, DraftKings, and IonQ.
Investors are concerned about a potential showdown for the S&P 500 as stock market commentator, Heisenberg, shares a chart indicating bearish patterns and a major trend line off the October lows, suggesting a sharp drop in the index. Rising bond yields, climbing oil prices, and fears of slowing consumer spending are also factors contributing to investor unease.
The S&P 500 has been hit hard by the September Effect, but investors should remain optimistic as history suggests the market will rebound, and there are compelling buying opportunities in certain growth stocks like Block and SolarEdge with upside potential of 93% and 127% respectively.
The S&P 500 closed out the quarter with a 3.6% loss, attributed to factors such as rising interest rates, a slowing housing market, and businesses preparing for tough times, resulting in a slow decline in stocks. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments and expectations of more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve are expected to impact consumer spending power and business cutbacks. However, as the year comes to an end, traders and investors may look forward to 2024 for possible rate cuts and a return of strength in the market.
The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes have resulted in a decline in the profitability of S&P 500 companies, with the return on equity ratio falling this year, and the trend could worsen if interest rates remain high.
The S&P 500's stability at the 4,200 level is crucial for determining the continuation of the bull market, with chartists and investors closely monitoring the 200-day moving average and potential implications for long-term trends and investor sentiment.
The dominance of the seven largest stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon, may indicate a brittle bull run and weak market breadth, causing concerns among financial experts. However, there is no need for drastic actions, and investors should stick to a disciplined investment plan and ensure diversification.
The S&P 500 has entered a bull market, marking a rise of 20% or more from its recent low, with hopes that the economy will continue to defy predictions of a recession caused by high inflation and aggressive measures taken by the Federal Reserve. However, concerns remain as the Fed is expected to continue hiking interest rates and the gains in the market have mainly been driven by a small group of stocks, raising sustainability concerns. Bull markets typically last around 5 years with gains of 177.8%, while the previous bull market lasted 21 months and the current one began on Oct. 13, 2022. The recent bear market ended on Oct. 12, 2022, with a duration of nine months and a drop of 25.4%.
The S&P 500 experienced a 7.83% drawdown, but current volatility expectations are lower than past periods of similar declines, suggesting that the market is experiencing a normal correction rather than a bear-market-like drawdown.
J.P. Morgan's Jacob Manoukian believes that despite the recent market volatility, there is good value in the market and predicts that the S&P 500 will reach a new all-time high by the middle of next year; analysts at JPMorgan have identified two stocks, Apellis Pharmaceuticals and Live Oak Bancshares, as potential investment opportunities.
The S&P 500 bull market celebrated its first year, but with relatively weak performance compared to historical data, there is potential for solid gains in 2024, especially considering the strong second year performance typically observed, as well as the potential seasonal tailwind of an election year.
The S&P 500 celebrated its first anniversary since reaching its bear-market low, but some experts argue that the market's weak performance in the past year may not qualify it as a strong bull market just yet.
The S&P 500 has seen a strong bounce off its previous low, but it has yet to fully recover, and the recent rise in Treasury yields and geopolitical conflicts contribute to a cautious outlook on the market's future performance.
Stock-market experts predict the market will gain about 6.5 percent in the next year, with the S&P 500 index climbing to an average of 4,578, despite rising rates and growing economic uncertainty.
Stocks rose last week, with the S&P 500 increasing 0.4%, and analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report a second consecutive quarter of earnings growth; however, the expectation that profit margins will expand again remains controversial.
The S&P 500 Index had a positive week, while gold saw a significant increase, but Bitcoin's performance was weak as it is on track to end the week down; market observers are keeping their focus on Bitcoin as its sustained price above $25,000 could lead to a bullish move and potential buying in select altcoins.
Investors are growing concerned that the S&P 500 in 2023 is displaying similarities to the pattern preceding the 1987 crash, such as a strong start to the year, a sell-off in the third quarter, rising interest rates, underperformance by rate-sensitive sectors, and a strong dollar; however, experts believe there are enough differences between the two periods to suggest that a crash-like event is unlikely.
A rally in the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter of 2023 is more likely than not, according to Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, as investors maintain confidence in current levels despite concerns about interest rates and economic growth.
Despite ongoing macro headwinds, S&P 500 companies are beating earning expectations and signals suggest that corporate America's earnings recession may be over, however, the macro picture and uncertainties still create choppiness and challenges for companies.