After a strong surge in June and July, the S&P 500 index has experienced a significant decline in August, with tech stocks being hit particularly hard, as fears of rising interest rates and a slowdown in China weigh on the market.
The S&P 500 Index reached a high in July but has since experienced a pullback of -4.8% in the first three weeks of August, with further downside possible, although the market may be near a turning point.
The S&P 500 has fallen nearly 5% in August, and opinions on whether stocks will rebound are divided among Wall Street firms and market commentators, with some, like Goldman Sachs and Fundstrat, remaining optimistic while others, including Michael Burry and David Rosenberg, are bearish.
The S&P 500 is close to reaching a record high, signaling the upcoming arrival of a new U.S. bull market, and investors should consider buying stocks like Roku and Datadog that have strong growth potential.
September has historically been a difficult month for stocks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing negative returns on average, but a pullback in September doesn't necessarily mean stocks will stumble for the rest of the year if the economy remains resilient and the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates.
The S&P 500 could experience significant gains in the coming months following the end of the current rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve, with historical data showing positive returns after previous cycles and strong economic indicators supporting this trend. Investors are advised to consider investing in an S&P 500 index fund or industry-leading stocks like Amazon.
The S&P 500 index has seen impressive gains this year, up over 17%, and could potentially reach 5,000 points by the end of 2023, according to expert Andrew Slimmon of Morgan Stanley. Despite a slight pullback in August, strong third-quarter earnings and investor interest in mega-cap tech stocks are expected to drive the market forward.
Despite economic challenges, the S&P 500 is expected to continue its strong growth, potentially increasing by as much as 11% as the summer season ends, driven by companies like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Slimmon.
Bank of America's technical strategist believes that despite historically poor September performance, the S&P 500's year-to-date rally positions it for further gains, with the potential for an 8% climb by the end of the year.
The stock market is still in an uptrend despite a recent pullback, and there is a likelihood of higher stock prices in the near term as long as the market continues to advance within its uptrending channel. Additionally, the recent breakout in the S&P 500 is a bullish sign for the market, and commodity-related stocks have begun to outperform, making them attractive investments.
The S&P 500 had a good week, rising 2.5% and coming 1.6% below the 2023 high-water mark set in July; however, there is a possibility of a recession if the Fed keeps rates high for longer than necessary.
Investors are becoming increasingly nervous due to concerns about the Fed potentially increasing interest rates, as well as rising 10-year interest rates and the VIX, which may put pressure on stocks; however, there are also positive factors emerging, such as improving S&P 500 profit estimates and a shift away from data dependence by Fed officials, which suggests a better finish to September is probable.
John Hussman warns that stocks are overvalued and investors buying into the S&P 500 now are likely to experience abysmal returns for the next decade. He cites high valuations and poor investor sentiment as indications of a forthcoming steep sell-off, and predicts an annualized return of -4% over the next 12 years.
The S&P 500 has had a strong performance this year, but reaching a new record high seems unlikely at this point.
Despite its high valuation, a strategist predicts that the S&P 500 can still continue to rise.
Bank of America predicts that the S&P 500 could surge over 25% within the next year based on a bullish indicator, with low long-term profit growth expectations among analysts signaling potential gains.
The S&P 500 is expected to rise 13% by June 2024, according to a historical correlation between first-half returns and subsequent 12-month gains, indicating a potentially bullish outlook for the stock market.
The S&P 500 typically experiences a decline before US government shutdowns, but tends to rebound and gain in the following months; however, the current shutdown may add to short-term market volatility amidst already challenging economic conditions.
The S&P 500 is up 12.5% in 2023, driven by megacaps including Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla, while several other top performers such as Royal Caribbean, Carnival Corp., and General Electric have recently sold off during the market correction and need some repair time.
The S&P 500's top seven stocks have surged more than 50% this year, while the rest of the index has only risen about 5%, highlighting a growing performance gap.
The S&P 500's potential for a long-term bull market relies on it surpassing a key level.
The S&P 500 is likely to experience more pain in the stock market unless the rise in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar comes to an end, based on technical charts and trends among index components.
Technical analyst John Salama predicts that the S&P 500 will regain positive momentum and has identified five stocks that he believes can rise up to 50% by the end of October, including SkyWest, Tesla, Carvana, DraftKings, and IonQ.
Investors are concerned about a potential showdown for the S&P 500 as stock market commentator, Heisenberg, shares a chart indicating bearish patterns and a major trend line off the October lows, suggesting a sharp drop in the index. Rising bond yields, climbing oil prices, and fears of slowing consumer spending are also factors contributing to investor unease.
The S&P 500 closed out the quarter with a 3.6% loss, attributed to factors such as rising interest rates, a slowing housing market, and businesses preparing for tough times, resulting in a slow decline in stocks. Additionally, the resumption of student loan payments and expectations of more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve are expected to impact consumer spending power and business cutbacks. However, as the year comes to an end, traders and investors may look forward to 2024 for possible rate cuts and a return of strength in the market.
Manish Kabra, head US equity and multiasset strategist at Société Générale, predicts that the S&P 500 will continue to be a "buy the dip" for the next six months due to improving profit growth and cyclical data, with a target range of 4,050 to 4,750, before a mild recession in 2024 potentially leads to a selloff in US stocks.
The S&P 500 experienced a 7.83% drawdown, but current volatility expectations are lower than past periods of similar declines, suggesting that the market is experiencing a normal correction rather than a bear-market-like drawdown.
J.P. Morgan's Jacob Manoukian believes that despite the recent market volatility, there is good value in the market and predicts that the S&P 500 will reach a new all-time high by the middle of next year; analysts at JPMorgan have identified two stocks, Apellis Pharmaceuticals and Live Oak Bancshares, as potential investment opportunities.
The S&P 500 bull market celebrated its first year, but with relatively weak performance compared to historical data, there is potential for solid gains in 2024, especially considering the strong second year performance typically observed, as well as the potential seasonal tailwind of an election year.
The S&P 500 celebrated its first anniversary since reaching its bear-market low, but some experts argue that the market's weak performance in the past year may not qualify it as a strong bull market just yet.
The S&P 500 has seen a strong bounce off its previous low, but it has yet to fully recover, and the recent rise in Treasury yields and geopolitical conflicts contribute to a cautious outlook on the market's future performance.
The S&P 500 is 9.3% away from trading in bull market territory, and investors should consider investing in Shopify and SolarEdge Technologies, as both stocks have the potential to triple in share prices by 2028 due to their discounted valuations and growth in their respective markets.
Stocks rose last week, with the S&P 500 increasing 0.4%, and analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report a second consecutive quarter of earnings growth; however, the expectation that profit margins will expand again remains controversial.
The S&P 500 Index had a positive week, while gold saw a significant increase, but Bitcoin's performance was weak as it is on track to end the week down; market observers are keeping their focus on Bitcoin as its sustained price above $25,000 could lead to a bullish move and potential buying in select altcoins.
Investors are growing concerned that the S&P 500 in 2023 is displaying similarities to the pattern preceding the 1987 crash, such as a strong start to the year, a sell-off in the third quarter, rising interest rates, underperformance by rate-sensitive sectors, and a strong dollar; however, experts believe there are enough differences between the two periods to suggest that a crash-like event is unlikely.
Despite ongoing macro headwinds, S&P 500 companies are beating earning expectations and signals suggest that corporate America's earnings recession may be over, however, the macro picture and uncertainties still create choppiness and challenges for companies.
Wall Street bear Michael Wilson maintains his prediction that the S&P 500 will end 2023 at 3,900, citing weak market breadth, waning consumer confidence, and tempered earnings growth expectations as reasons for a potential further drop in stocks.
The S&P 500's record-breaking performance, driven by a handful of technology stocks, is causing concern among economists due to their inflated valuations and the high levels of Treasury debt yields, suggesting an imminent correction in the market.
The stock market's recent lackluster phase may have a glimmer of hope based on historical trends, with data showing that in years when the S&P 500 gained more than 1.4% in the first five days of October and had negative performance the previous year, the market advanced about 86% of the time; however, the near-term outlook may not be as optimistic, with October historically seeing a negative change and geopolitical tensions potentially dampening economic growth.
The S&P 500 is at a crucial moment as it is caught between key technical levels, and the next phase of the bull market hinges on a breakout; year-end seasonality is expected to be positive for the stock market.
The S&P 500 Index is facing obstacles in maintaining a bullish trend, with a downtrend line and an unfilled gap on the chart, while resistance is observed at around 4380; however, there is still a McMillan Volatility Band buy signal in place, indicating some positive aspects.
The S&P 500 is experiencing a volatile and uncertain market, causing many investors to give up, but understanding the nature of the volatility and the current strength of the economy can help align portfolios for future gains, especially with GDP estimated to be at 3.5% - 5.4% for Q3 and PCE Inflation expected to drop to 3.1% moving closer to the Fed's 2% target.
John Hussman, who accurately predicted the 2000 and 2008 market crashes, warns that the S&P 500 could drop by as much as 63% due to high valuations and weak market breadth, which have historically led to significant losses for investors.
Summary: The S&P 500 experienced a 2.4% decline last week, marking a 7.9% decrease from its high-water mark in July 2023, while bitcoin remains down 48% from its peak in October 2021, and solar energy stocks faced a significant setback due to rising interest rates.
The S&P 500 is at risk of a technical breakdown, but oversold extremes and potential rebound indicators suggest that a reversal in stock prices could be imminent, according to Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton.
