The majority of economists polled by Reuters predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again, and they expect the central bank to wait until at least the end of March before cutting them, as the probability of a recession within a year falls to its lowest level since September 2022.
A stock market rally is likely to occur in the near future, as recent data indicates that a bounce is expected after a period of selling pressure, with several sectors and markets reaching oversold levels and trading below their normal risk ranges. Additionally, analysis suggests that sectors such as Utilities, Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Financials, and Bonds, which have been underperforming, could provide upside potential in 2024 if there is a decline in interest rates driven by the Federal Reserve.
Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal predicts that the stock market will soon hit a bottom, with the S&P 500 entering oversold territory, and expects institutional buyers to step in and establish a market bottom; he also suggests that Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing bullish signs on certain indicators.
The S&P 500 has fallen nearly 5% in August, and opinions on whether stocks will rebound are divided among Wall Street firms and market commentators, with some, like Goldman Sachs and Fundstrat, remaining optimistic while others, including Michael Burry and David Rosenberg, are bearish.
Volatility and rising interest rates have caused a pullback in U.S. equity markets, particularly impacting the technology sector, but investors should not panic as pullbacks are normal in a bull market and present buying opportunities. China's deteriorating economic conditions and weak seasonal trends have also contributed to the selling pressure. However, support is expected to be found in the 4,200 to 4,300 range in the S&P 500, and the Federal Reserve's likely end to the rate-hiking cycle and improved earnings should provide fundamental support for investors to buy the dip.
The stock market has been riding high in 2023, but recent market trends and uncertainties about interest rates and inflation have led to a pullback in August, leaving investors unsure about the future direction of the market. It is advised to stick to a long-term investment plan and remain focused on investment objectives and risk tolerance.
The stock market is rising despite bad news, as interest rates lower and stabilizing rates are seen as positive signs.
The market anticipates a 100 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2024, with US 10-year yields falling and Fed funds futures indicating a lower path ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, as US services PMI disappoints and US retailer Foot Locker warns on the consumer.
Stocks are overvalued and a recession is expected in the first half of next year, according to economist Steve Hanke. He predicts that inflation will cool, Treasury yields will fall, and house prices will remain stable.
Bank of America believes that the stock market will continue to rise as investors' bullish sentiment contradicts their conservative portfolio positioning, suggesting there is still upside potential until hedge funds increase their exposure to cyclical and high-beta stocks and economic conditions deteriorate considerably.
Warren Buffett warns that the U.S. economy's "incredible period" of growth is coming to an end, and suggests investors consider diversifying with recession-resistant assets, commercial real estate, international stocks, and keeping cash on hand.
Stocks rise at the beginning of the week after last week's selling, with markets relieved by the 10-year yield remaining at around 4.3%, while anticipating Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Friday for insight on short-term interest rates and inflation control.
Investors have been building up bets on the Federal Reserve announcing an end to its rate hikes, but the central bank's preferred inflation data and Chair Jerome Powell's comments suggest that the cycle may not be over yet.
Stocks rise as markets shift focus from the Federal Reserve to corporate and economic reports, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both experiencing gains, while investors await upcoming economic data and inflation updates.
Investors are unsure if the correction in the US stock market is over, as the possibility of a head-and-shoulders top on the S&P 500 is being discussed, although it is still uncertain if the consolidation will continue higher or lead to a downward trend.
The S&P 500 could experience significant gains in the coming months following the end of the current rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve, with historical data showing positive returns after previous cycles and strong economic indicators supporting this trend. Investors are advised to consider investing in an S&P 500 index fund or industry-leading stocks like Amazon.
The fundamentals and technicals support a demographically driven bull market in stocks until 2034, but potential risks include inflation, interest rate-induced debt crisis, and refinancing problems, which could lead to a drop in the stock market. Comparing the S&P 500's score in August 2023 to historical patterns, the market seems confident and not indicating an imminent debt crisis or severe recession. Credit spreads also appear tame compared to previous crisis periods. However, the article notes the possibility of abrupt changes in the market and encourages openness to a wide range of outcomes.
Stocks are expected to rally next month, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching its previous highs, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee, who cited reasons such as a cooling economy, no further interest rate hikes from the Fed, overly bearish sentiment in August, and historically strong performance in September.
Stock futures rise as recent economic data sparks hopes that the Federal Reserve is approaching the end of its rates-hiking cycle.
Despite economic challenges, the S&P 500 is expected to continue its strong growth, potentially increasing by as much as 11% as the summer season ends, driven by companies like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Slimmon.
The S&P 500 ended lower and the Nasdaq higher as U.S. inflation data met expectations, signaling a potential pause in monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, while Salesforce shares climbed following a positive revenue forecast.
A trader predicts that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high before the end of 2023, with the possibility of a 157% rally from the current level.
The stock market could reach record highs by the end of the year, as historical data suggests positive returns when stocks are up 10%-20% heading into September, according to Bank of America.
The S&P 500 rally is expected to fade as economic data supports a higher for longer monetary policy, with weaker job opening data and ADP job report sending rates down and a strong job report and ISM data pushing rates higher, creating challenges for the stock market as financial conditions tighten and leading to lower levels.
Stock investors have been reacting positively to "bad economic news" as it may imply a slowdown in the economy and a potential halt to interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, however, for this trend to change, economic data would have to be much worse than it is currently.
Jeremy Siegel, known as the "Wizard of Wharton," believes that the US stock market is in a good position due to receding inflation threats, and that the housing market is resilient as investors view both as valuable hedges against inflation. Additionally, a softer labor market could delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike until December.
The stock market is still in an uptrend despite a recent pullback, and there is a likelihood of higher stock prices in the near term as long as the market continues to advance within its uptrending channel. Additionally, the recent breakout in the S&P 500 is a bullish sign for the market, and commodity-related stocks have begun to outperform, making them attractive investments.
Analysts at BMO and UBS predict that the yield on the 10-year Treasury will surpass the S&P 500 earnings yield, indicating a potential fall in stocks and a rise in bond prices.
The S&P 500 had a good week, rising 2.5% and coming 1.6% below the 2023 high-water mark set in July; however, there is a possibility of a recession if the Fed keeps rates high for longer than necessary.
The author argues against the common belief that rising interest rates and a rising dollar will negatively impact the stock market, citing historical evidence that contradicts this perspective and emphasizes the importance of analyzing market reality rather than personal beliefs. The author presents a bullish outlook for the market, with a potential rally towards the 4800SPX region, but also acknowledges the possibility of a corrective pullback.
Investors are becoming increasingly nervous due to concerns about the Fed potentially increasing interest rates, as well as rising 10-year interest rates and the VIX, which may put pressure on stocks; however, there are also positive factors emerging, such as improving S&P 500 profit estimates and a shift away from data dependence by Fed officials, which suggests a better finish to September is probable.
John Hussman warns that stocks are overvalued and investors buying into the S&P 500 now are likely to experience abysmal returns for the next decade. He cites high valuations and poor investor sentiment as indications of a forthcoming steep sell-off, and predicts an annualized return of -4% over the next 12 years.
U.S. stock investors are closely watching next week's inflation data, which may determine the future of the equity rally, as signs of a soft landing for the U.S. economy have contributed to the S&P 500's gains, but too high inflation could lead to fears of higher interest rates and stock sell-offs.
The US economy is facing a looming recession, with weakness in certain sectors, but investors should not expect a significant number of interest-rate cuts next year, according to Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. She points out that leading indicators have severely deteriorated, indicating trouble ahead, and predicts a full-blown recession as the most likely outcome. Despite this, the stock market has been defying rate increases and performing well.
The stock market is expected to reach new highs by the end of the year, as a leading bond market indicator signals a bullish trend, according to Bank of America.
Despite its high valuation, a strategist predicts that the S&P 500 can still continue to rise.
The S&P 500 index has seen impressive gains this year, but one expert believes the rally is coming to an end, citing rising bond yields as the main threat to stock prices.
Economist Gary Shilling predicts that the S&P 500 will decline by around 40% during this market cycle, citing recession indicators such as the yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index. He believes that a US recession may already be underway due to the Federal Reserve's focus on reducing inflation, and high valuations in the stock market increase the likelihood of a significant drop.
The stock market is currently stagnant and the key question is when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates, as the market struggles when the Fed tightens monetary policy.
Bank of America predicts that the S&P 500 could surge over 25% within the next year based on a bullish indicator, with low long-term profit growth expectations among analysts signaling potential gains.
Stock-market strategists are raising their year-end targets for the S&P 500 Index after being largely wrong about this year's rally, but they still expect a market downturn in 2024 despite signs of a strong economy and improving profit outlook.
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel believes that the current valuation of the stock market is a good deal for investors, and long-term investors should continue to buy stocks despite concerns about a potential recession, elevated interest rates, and high inflation.
The Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates until inflation decreases, even if it means more people losing their jobs, according to CNBC's Jim Cramer.
The Federal Reserve has paused raising interest rates and projects that the US will not experience a recession until at least 2027, citing improvement in the economy and a "very smooth landing," though there are still potential risks such as surging oil prices, an auto worker strike, and the threat of a government shutdown.
The Federal Reserve's plans for prolonged elevated interest rates may continue to put pressure on stocks and bonds, although some investors doubt that the central bank will follow through with its projections.
U.S. stocks are expected to open lower and the dollar is soaring after the Federal Reserve indicated that interest rates will remain higher for a longer period, while the Bank of England faces a tough rate decision and the Swiss National Bank has paused its rate-hiking cycle.