### Summary
The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages, suggesting that the stock market is not unanchored from reality. However, the performance of long-term US Treasuries has been poor, with even 10-year Treasuries resulting in losses over the last five years. Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain whether it will be enough to bring down inflation rates.
### Facts
- The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages.
- The performance of long-term US Treasuries has been weak, resulting in losses for investors even after accounting for coupon payments.
- Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain if it will bring down inflation rates.
- The nature of the stock market rally suggests that investors are still searching for buying opportunities rather than thinking about selling.
- Energy, industrials, and financials have become favored sectors, while technology stocks have started to decline.
- The Chinese economy is struggling, with retail sales and industrial production growth slowing down.
- The Federal Reserve has expressed concerns about inflation but also noted downside risks to the economy.
###
Surging U.S. Treasury yields are causing concern among investors as they wonder how much it will impact the rally in stocks and speculative assets, with the S&P 500, technology sector, bitcoin, and high-growth names all experiencing losses; rising rates are making it more difficult for borrowers and increasing the appeal of risk-free Treasury yields.
A stock market rally is likely to occur in the near future, as recent data indicates that a bounce is expected after a period of selling pressure, with several sectors and markets reaching oversold levels and trading below their normal risk ranges. Additionally, analysis suggests that sectors such as Utilities, Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Financials, and Bonds, which have been underperforming, could provide upside potential in 2024 if there is a decline in interest rates driven by the Federal Reserve.
Volatility and rising interest rates have caused a pullback in U.S. equity markets, particularly impacting the technology sector, but investors should not panic as pullbacks are normal in a bull market and present buying opportunities. China's deteriorating economic conditions and weak seasonal trends have also contributed to the selling pressure. However, support is expected to be found in the 4,200 to 4,300 range in the S&P 500, and the Federal Reserve's likely end to the rate-hiking cycle and improved earnings should provide fundamental support for investors to buy the dip.
Despite recent market gains, investors are concerned that the current rally may be the last hurrah before an economic contraction, especially after the Federal Reserve indicated that it could hike interest rates twice more this year.
U.S. equity markets rallied as tech stocks gained and Netflix shares rose on strong subscriber growth, while Foot Locker and oil stocks struggled; U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar fell, while cryptocurrency prices rebounded.
The rally in the S&P 500 is expected to be limited for the rest of the year due to various negative factors that will put pressure on equities, according to JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos, who believes the strength of the US economy has only delayed, not prevented, an upcoming recession.
The stock market rally attempt experienced a setback as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw a downside reversal, indicating that the correction is still ongoing, while retailers faced challenges and Treasury yields reached a 15-year high. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of potential rate hikes due to high inflation.
Equity markets historically rally after the Jackson Hole symposium, with a success rate of over 80%, despite the recent concerns about rising yields and inflation, indicating that stocks may rise despite higher rates.
Tech stocks led a rally in the stock market, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.6% and the S&P 500 ending a four-day losing streak, despite the rise in Treasury yields; investors will be looking for clues about the US consumer spending and the economy as retailers' earnings reports are expected, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium is anticipated for indications on interest rates.
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel predicts that the stock market will continue to rise into the end of the year, with the S&P 500 potentially surging 25% and gaining an additional 9% if the Federal Reserve acknowledges falling inflation and refrains from further interest rate hikes.
The S&P 500 has rallied in 2023 due to factors such as cooling inflation, a strong economy, and a positive outlook for earnings, but concerns over credit market volatility, monetary policy uncertainty, and steep valuations pose risks to the bull market rally.
A potential relief rally in the stock market is expected to start the week, but the upside is limited due to uncertainties about interest rates and the recent volatility, according to a Wall Street technician. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have experienced pullbacks, but a relief rally may be possible in the near term. However, the long-term trend remains uncertain, and the risk of a downturn in the financial system is elevated.
Equity markets are higher as investors consider macro data, with Wall Street experiencing a rally fueled by optimism about interest rates and job openings.
Buyers returned to the stock market after positive data on the U.S. jobs market suggested that wage inflation may decrease further, with Microsoft stock showing promising signs in forming a new base, while China's PDD Holdings experienced a significant gain amid hopes of government measures to stimulate economic activity. Additionally, megacap tech stocks led a broad rally in the stock market, with the Nasdaq composite rising 1.7%, and there is anticipation of a potential increase in the overnight fed funds rate and a rise in bond yields.
Stocks are expected to rally next month, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching its previous highs, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee, who cited reasons such as a cooling economy, no further interest rate hikes from the Fed, overly bearish sentiment in August, and historically strong performance in September.
Wall Street rises ahead of new inflation and jobs data that could impact Federal Reserve's policy decisions, as futures for the Dow Jones and S&P 500 increase, while Dollar General falls 16% and software company Salesforce rallies 6% in premarket.
Summary: The stock market shows signs of a rally, with major indexes surpassing the 50-day line and Treasury yields decreasing, growth stocks are leading, and software companies like Salesforce, MongoDB, and CrowdStrike reporting positive earnings; meanwhile, Amazon and Shopify announce a deeper partnership, and Tesla unveils an upgraded Model 3 while also lowering prices. Additionally, a near-perfect jobs report and tamed inflation data suggest that the Fed may not continue with rate hikes.
The S&P 500 rally is expected to fade as economic data supports a higher for longer monetary policy, with weaker job opening data and ADP job report sending rates down and a strong job report and ISM data pushing rates higher, creating challenges for the stock market as financial conditions tighten and leading to lower levels.
Stock investors have been reacting positively to "bad economic news" as it may imply a slowdown in the economy and a potential halt to interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, however, for this trend to change, economic data would have to be much worse than it is currently.
The author argues against the common belief that rising interest rates and a rising dollar will negatively impact the stock market, citing historical evidence that contradicts this perspective and emphasizes the importance of analyzing market reality rather than personal beliefs. The author presents a bullish outlook for the market, with a potential rally towards the 4800SPX region, but also acknowledges the possibility of a corrective pullback.
The stock market rally faced pressure as rising Treasury yields and Apple's China troubles pushed major indexes below their 50-day moving averages.
Summary: Stock futures are trading higher as investors anticipate the release of U.S. inflation data and consider its impact on monetary policy.
India's stock market has seen a rally as strong macroeconomic fundamentals and China's economic slowdown keep foreign investors invested in Indian stocks, while a surge in retail investor interest continues to drive the market.
The S&P 500 is unlikely to experience a similar rally to the one seen 11 months ago despite the increase in U.S. consumer price inflation, according to chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, including a rise in producer prices and retail sales, has sparked concerns about sticky inflation and has reinforced the belief that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.
Stocks rise as reports suggest the US economy is strong, but inflation remains a concern.
The S&P 500 index has seen impressive gains this year, but one expert believes the rally is coming to an end, citing rising bond yields as the main threat to stock prices.
Wall Street rallied as reports suggested that the US economy is still strong, despite concerns about inflation, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1%.
Investors are more focused on the release of new forecasts from the Federal Reserve, which will reveal their views on the prospect of an economic "soft landing" and the rate environment that will accompany it.
The stock market's strong rally in the first half of 2023 has slowed down, with stocks down more than 5% since August despite strong second-quarter earnings and a strong economy, leaving investors unsure of what to expect in the final months of the year.
Investors are preparing for more inflation data from the US and Europe this week while still digesting the surprising and contradictory central bank decisions from last week, causing global markets to feel the heat as US bond yields surge and a strengthened dollar hits a six-month high.
A majority of Wall Street investors are concerned about the stock market's gains in 2023 and believe that it could retreat further as the risk for a recession increases.
The stock market rally attempt had modest gains on Thursday, with Dow Jones futures and Treasury yields reversing lower, while investors await the PCE inflation report and a potential government shutdown.
Stocks rallied on Thursday, recovering from recent losses, as the S&P 500 rose 0.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8%, while the Fed's higher-for-longer stance on interest rates continues to impact markets. Additionally, mortgage rates hit a 23-year high, dampening homebuyer activity, and the US economy showed slightly weaker growth in the second quarter than initially reported.
Investors attempt a risk-on rally as Treasury yields and oil prices stabilize, but concerns over higher interest rates continue to impact sentiment in European and global markets.
The CEO of Key Advisors Wealth Management expects a potential market rally at the end of the year despite inflation and recession concerns.
Market veteran Ed Yardeni predicts a year-end rally in the stock market, driven by strong corporate earnings and resilient economic growth, despite potential risks from higher interest rates.
The market is experiencing a gradual decline after a summer rally, as inflation remains above the target range and there are concerns about a forced correction of the economy due to the higher for longer rate environment; the overvalued nature of equity valuations also contributes to the risk of a broader market crash.
Jim Cramer anticipates a potential stock market rally based on Friday's upcoming nonfarm payroll report, which may influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates and potentially please the market, although weakness in certain sectors is expected.
The stock market is poised for a relief rally, as several internal indicators have hit oversold extremes after a period of panic selling, according to Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton.
Wall Street rallies as investors analyze strong US job market report, though concerns about inflation and high interest rates persist.
The stock market rally ended the week on a bullish note, with major indexes staging an upside reversal and several leading stocks flashing buy signals, including Nvidia, Meta Platforms, Arista Networks, Qualys, Eli Lilly, CME Group, Vertiv Holdings, CrowdStrike Holdings, Cadence Design Systems, and Palo Alto Networks.
Stock markets are wavering as investors anticipate another rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, fearing its impact on the global economy, however, recent inflation data suggests that inflation is declining and consumer spending is rising.
Stocks rallied on Friday after a positive jobs report, with employment increasing and wage growth slowing, leading major U.S. indexes to close the week in the black; upcoming reports on producer and consumer inflation will provide further insight for policymakers.
The current rally in stocks since October 2022 is one of the weakest bull markets on record, with elevated valuations and monetary tightening measures limiting upside potential, according to Ned Davis Research.
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