### Summary
The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages, suggesting that the stock market is not unanchored from reality. However, the performance of long-term US Treasuries has been poor, with even 10-year Treasuries resulting in losses over the last five years. Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain whether it will be enough to bring down inflation rates.
### Facts
- The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages.
- The performance of long-term US Treasuries has been weak, resulting in losses for investors even after accounting for coupon payments.
- Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain if it will bring down inflation rates.
- The nature of the stock market rally suggests that investors are still searching for buying opportunities rather than thinking about selling.
- Energy, industrials, and financials have become favored sectors, while technology stocks have started to decline.
- The Chinese economy is struggling, with retail sales and industrial production growth slowing down.
- The Federal Reserve has expressed concerns about inflation but also noted downside risks to the economy.
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Surging U.S. Treasury yields are causing concern among investors as they wonder how much it will impact the rally in stocks and speculative assets, with the S&P 500, technology sector, bitcoin, and high-growth names all experiencing losses; rising rates are making it more difficult for borrowers and increasing the appeal of risk-free Treasury yields.
The S&P 500 Index reached a high in July but has since experienced a pullback of -4.8% in the first three weeks of August, with further downside possible, although the market may be near a turning point.
Despite recent market gains, investors are concerned that the current rally may be the last hurrah before an economic contraction, especially after the Federal Reserve indicated that it could hike interest rates twice more this year.
The rally in the S&P 500 is expected to be limited for the rest of the year due to various negative factors that will put pressure on equities, according to JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos, who believes the strength of the US economy has only delayed, not prevented, an upcoming recession.
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel predicts that the stock market will continue to rise into the end of the year, with the S&P 500 potentially surging 25% and gaining an additional 9% if the Federal Reserve acknowledges falling inflation and refrains from further interest rate hikes.
The S&P 500 has rallied in 2023 due to factors such as cooling inflation, a strong economy, and a positive outlook for earnings, but concerns over credit market volatility, monetary policy uncertainty, and steep valuations pose risks to the bull market rally.
A potential relief rally in the stock market is expected to start the week, but the upside is limited due to uncertainties about interest rates and the recent volatility, according to a Wall Street technician. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have experienced pullbacks, but a relief rally may be possible in the near term. However, the long-term trend remains uncertain, and the risk of a downturn in the financial system is elevated.
The S&P 500 could experience significant gains in the coming months following the end of the current rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve, with historical data showing positive returns after previous cycles and strong economic indicators supporting this trend. Investors are advised to consider investing in an S&P 500 index fund or industry-leading stocks like Amazon.
The S&P 500 index has seen impressive gains this year, up over 17%, and could potentially reach 5,000 points by the end of 2023, according to expert Andrew Slimmon of Morgan Stanley. Despite a slight pullback in August, strong third-quarter earnings and investor interest in mega-cap tech stocks are expected to drive the market forward.
Stocks are expected to rally next month, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching its previous highs, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee, who cited reasons such as a cooling economy, no further interest rate hikes from the Fed, overly bearish sentiment in August, and historically strong performance in September.
Despite economic challenges, the S&P 500 is expected to continue its strong growth, potentially increasing by as much as 11% as the summer season ends, driven by companies like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Slimmon.
The S&P 500 started off strong in 2023 but faced a downturn in August, and Wall Street is divided on where the market is headed, with some predicting a further drop and others expecting a rebound.
The S&P 500 rally is expected to fade as economic data supports a higher for longer monetary policy, with weaker job opening data and ADP job report sending rates down and a strong job report and ISM data pushing rates higher, creating challenges for the stock market as financial conditions tighten and leading to lower levels.
Bank of America's technical strategist believes that despite historically poor September performance, the S&P 500's year-to-date rally positions it for further gains, with the potential for an 8% climb by the end of the year.
The stock market is still in an uptrend despite a recent pullback, and there is a likelihood of higher stock prices in the near term as long as the market continues to advance within its uptrending channel. Additionally, the recent breakout in the S&P 500 is a bullish sign for the market, and commodity-related stocks have begun to outperform, making them attractive investments.
Analysts at BMO and UBS predict that the yield on the 10-year Treasury will surpass the S&P 500 earnings yield, indicating a potential fall in stocks and a rise in bond prices.
The S&P 500 Index rallied off support but may not be starting a new bull market as resistance at 4500 has caused a decline.
Investors are becoming increasingly nervous due to concerns about the Fed potentially increasing interest rates, as well as rising 10-year interest rates and the VIX, which may put pressure on stocks; however, there are also positive factors emerging, such as improving S&P 500 profit estimates and a shift away from data dependence by Fed officials, which suggests a better finish to September is probable.
U.S. stock investors are closely watching next week's inflation data, which may determine the future of the equity rally, as signs of a soft landing for the U.S. economy have contributed to the S&P 500's gains, but too high inflation could lead to fears of higher interest rates and stock sell-offs.
The stock market is expected to reach new highs by the end of the year, as a leading bond market indicator signals a bullish trend, according to Bank of America.
Despite its high valuation, a strategist predicts that the S&P 500 can still continue to rise.
The S&P 500 is unlikely to experience a similar rally to the one seen 11 months ago despite the increase in U.S. consumer price inflation, according to chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky.
Dow Jones futures and S&P 500 futures rose slightly as the market rally saw a solid advance with major indexes reclaiming their 50-day moving averages, although caution is still advised for new investments.
Stock-market strategists are raising their year-end targets for the S&P 500 Index after being largely wrong about this year's rally, but they still expect a market downturn in 2024 despite signs of a strong economy and improving profit outlook.
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones gained as Treasury yields pulled back ahead of a likely pause in the Federal Reserve's policy tightening campaign, although concerns over rates staying higher for longer kept investor sentiment cautious.
The S&P 500 showed multiple warning signs of a coming selloff, with indicators suggesting a potential downtrend and volatility in the stock market, prompting caution for investors and the need to closely monitor next week's market action and earnings report season.
The S&P 500 is expected to reach a new all-time high by mid-2024 as the Federal Reserve is projected to stop raising interest rates, according to JPMorgan strategist AJ Oden. This forecast suggests a minimum increase of 12% from current levels.
The S&P 500 is likely to experience more pain in the stock market unless the rise in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar comes to an end, based on technical charts and trends among index components.
Investors are concerned about a potential showdown for the S&P 500 as stock market commentator, Heisenberg, shares a chart indicating bearish patterns and a major trend line off the October lows, suggesting a sharp drop in the index. Rising bond yields, climbing oil prices, and fears of slowing consumer spending are also factors contributing to investor unease.
The recent surge in bond yields, with 10-year Treasury yields hitting levels not seen in over 15 years, is impacting the stock market as investors shift their focus to safer bond investments, which offer higher yields and less volatility than stocks.
Investors attempt a risk-on rally as Treasury yields and oil prices stabilize, but concerns over higher interest rates continue to impact sentiment in European and global markets.
The S&P 500 has been hit hard by the September Effect, but investors should remain optimistic as history suggests the market will rebound, and there are compelling buying opportunities in certain growth stocks like Block and SolarEdge with upside potential of 93% and 127% respectively.
Bitcoin ended the day slightly higher but saw a dip as the US 10-year yield surged, while the launch of ether futures ETFs did not generate much investor interest; however, the overall crypto market has been experiencing a rally influenced by factors like SEC approvals and government decisions, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this rally.
Market veteran Ed Yardeni predicts a year-end rally in the stock market, driven by strong corporate earnings and resilient economic growth, despite potential risks from higher interest rates.
The selloff in Treasuries has intensified as yields reach multiyear highs on speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates, causing losses for investors and impacting stock valuations.
Treasury yields are expected to rise even further, possibly surpassing 5%, due to concerns of inflation and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate hikes, leading bond investors to sell off and causing volatility in both the bond and stock markets.
The stock market is poised for a relief rally, as several internal indicators have hit oversold extremes after a period of panic selling, according to Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton.
The recent surge in bond yields is causing a significant shift in markets, but there is still optimism among investors.
Stocks rallied on Wednesday as US Treasury yields backed off recent highs, but the breakneck pace of the rates rally combined with slowing economic growth is flashing a warning to bond market observers.
Stocks are expected to end the year "significantly higher" despite recent losses, as surging bond yields are not sustainable and are disconnected from the fundamentals, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee.
The stock market rally ended the week on a bullish note, with major indexes staging an upside reversal and several leading stocks flashing buy signals, including Nvidia, Meta Platforms, Arista Networks, Qualys, Eli Lilly, CME Group, Vertiv Holdings, CrowdStrike Holdings, Cadence Design Systems, and Palo Alto Networks.
The current rally in stocks since October 2022 is one of the weakest bull markets on record, with elevated valuations and monetary tightening measures limiting upside potential, according to Ned Davis Research.
Investors are closely monitoring the bond market and September CPI data to determine the Fed's stance on interest rates, with Seema Shah of Principal Asset Management highlighting the circular nature of market reactions to yield spikes and their subsequent declines. She suggests that while there are concerns about upward momentum, the equity market will find comfort in a continued drop in yields and could remain range-bound for the rest of the year. Diversification is recommended as the market narrative remains unclear, and investors may consider waiting until early 2024 for greater clarity on the economy and the Fed's actions.
The recent rally in the U.S. stock market is likely a short-term uptick within a longer-term downtrend, as the optimism of stock market timers exceeds historical expectations.
The S&P 500 has seen a strong bounce off its previous low, but it has yet to fully recover, and the recent rise in Treasury yields and geopolitical conflicts contribute to a cautious outlook on the market's future performance.
Stock-market experts predict the market will gain about 6.5 percent in the next year, with the S&P 500 index climbing to an average of 4,578, despite rising rates and growing economic uncertainty.
The recent rally in stocks, driven by the belief that elevated bond yields are enough to tighten financial conditions and eliminate the need for further central bank action, is seen as a dangerous view that ignores the threat of higher Treasury yields on stock valuations and competition for risk capital.