Summary: Many pundits believe that rising interest rates are causing the decline in the market, but the author argues that this belief is false and that the market has ignored high rates in the past while still rallying. The author suggests that the recent decline could be attributed to public fear of UFOs and aliens or to the media's need to find any reason to blame for the decline, even if it lacks internal consistency. The author emphasizes the importance of not letting personal biases and opinions influence investment decisions, and instead relying on objective analysis, such as the Fibonacci Pinball method of applying Elliott Wave analysis. The market's next move will determine the direction for the rest of 2023, and investors should approach the market with an open mind.
The majority of economists polled by Reuters predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again, and they expect the central bank to wait until at least the end of March before cutting them, as the probability of a recession within a year falls to its lowest level since September 2022.
A stock market rally is likely to occur in the near future, as recent data indicates that a bounce is expected after a period of selling pressure, with several sectors and markets reaching oversold levels and trading below their normal risk ranges. Additionally, analysis suggests that sectors such as Utilities, Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Financials, and Bonds, which have been underperforming, could provide upside potential in 2024 if there is a decline in interest rates driven by the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve faces new questions as the U.S. economy continues to perform well despite high interest rates, prompting economists to believe a "soft landing" is possible, with optimism rising for an acceleration of growth and a more sustainable post-pandemic economy.
Two Federal Reserve officials suggest that interest-rate increases may be coming to an end, but one of them believes that further hikes may still be necessary depending on inflation trends.
The stock market rally attempt experienced a setback as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw a downside reversal, indicating that the correction is still ongoing, while retailers faced challenges and Treasury yields reached a 15-year high. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned of potential rate hikes due to high inflation.
The Fed and bond market may be headed for a clash as they have differing views on whether interest rates are sufficiently restrictive to cool the economy and bring inflation back to target.
The dollar is expected to continue strengthening as bond yields rise, with the Fed likely to hike rates at least once more this year, and a barrage of economic data this week will heavily influence Fed policy decisions and impact the direction of the dollar and interest rates.
Tech stocks led a rally in the stock market, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.6% and the S&P 500 ending a four-day losing streak, despite the rise in Treasury yields; investors will be looking for clues about the US consumer spending and the economy as retailers' earnings reports are expected, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium is anticipated for indications on interest rates.
Investors have been building up bets on the Federal Reserve announcing an end to its rate hikes, but the central bank's preferred inflation data and Chair Jerome Powell's comments suggest that the cycle may not be over yet.
A potential relief rally in the stock market is expected to start the week, but the upside is limited due to uncertainties about interest rates and the recent volatility, according to a Wall Street technician. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have experienced pullbacks, but a relief rally may be possible in the near term. However, the long-term trend remains uncertain, and the risk of a downturn in the financial system is elevated.
Stocks rally as job openings decline in July, bonds rally on softening job market and odds of interest rate pause, court rules SEC needs more reasoning to block Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF, and other market movements.
The Federal Reserve meeting in September may hold the key to the end of the tightening cycle, as markets anticipate a rate hike in November, aligning with the Fed's thinking on its peak rate. However, disagreement among Fed policymakers regarding the strength of the economy and inflation raises questions about the clarity and certainty of the Fed's guidance. Market skeptics remain uncertain about the possibility of a "soft landing," with sustained economic expansion following a period of tightening.
Stocks are expected to rally next month, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching its previous highs, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee, who cited reasons such as a cooling economy, no further interest rate hikes from the Fed, overly bearish sentiment in August, and historically strong performance in September.
Wall Street extends rally and dollar rebounds on the last trading day of August as inflation data suggests the Federal Reserve will pause on interest rate hikes.
Summary: The stock market shows signs of a rally, with major indexes surpassing the 50-day line and Treasury yields decreasing, growth stocks are leading, and software companies like Salesforce, MongoDB, and CrowdStrike reporting positive earnings; meanwhile, Amazon and Shopify announce a deeper partnership, and Tesla unveils an upgraded Model 3 while also lowering prices. Additionally, a near-perfect jobs report and tamed inflation data suggest that the Fed may not continue with rate hikes.
The S&P 500 rally is expected to fade as economic data supports a higher for longer monetary policy, with weaker job opening data and ADP job report sending rates down and a strong job report and ISM data pushing rates higher, creating challenges for the stock market as financial conditions tighten and leading to lower levels.
The author argues against the common belief that rising interest rates and a rising dollar will negatively impact the stock market, citing historical evidence that contradicts this perspective and emphasizes the importance of analyzing market reality rather than personal beliefs. The author presents a bullish outlook for the market, with a potential rally towards the 4800SPX region, but also acknowledges the possibility of a corrective pullback.
The US dollar is on track for its longest rally in years as the strength of the economy fuels speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated, drawing money into the US as investors seek higher rates than they can get in Europe and Asia.
Federal Reserve policymakers are not eager to raise interest rates, but they are cautious about declaring victory as they monitor data such as inflation and job growth; most do not expect a rate hike at the upcoming policy-setting meeting.
U.S. stock investors are closely watching next week's inflation data, as it could determine the future of the current equity rally, which has been fluctuating recently due to concerns over the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and inflationary pressures.
Bond traders are anticipating that the Federal Reserve will continue with interest-rate hikes, and next week's consumer-price index report will provide further insight on how much more tightening may be required to control inflation.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, including a rise in producer prices and retail sales, has sparked concerns about sticky inflation and has reinforced the belief that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.
The S&P 500 index has seen impressive gains this year, but one expert believes the rally is coming to an end, citing rising bond yields as the main threat to stock prices.
Traders and investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its September meeting, indicating a shift in the market's interpretation of good economic news, as it suggests the Fed may be close to pausing its rate hike cycle despite inflation being above target levels and potential headwinds in the economy.
Bitcoin, ethereum, BNB, and XRP have experienced a strong price rally in 2023, but a small cryptocurrency has surpassed them, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions could impact the bitcoin price.
The positive momentum surrounding Bitcoin's price is fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve will not hike rates again this year, while market participants remain optimistic despite the strength of the United States Dollar Index.
Bitcoin is expected to mimic its previous rally and potentially see significant gains in the near future, according to crypto strategist Credible Crypto, who points to a bullish engulfing candle pattern and the defense of a key support level as positive signs for BTC's upward momentum.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week, but investors will be paying close attention to any indications of future rate increases as the central bank continues its fight against inflation.
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a pause on interest rate hikes due to positive economic indicators and the likelihood of a "soft landing" for the economy, but future decisions will be influenced by factors such as the resumption of student loan payments and a potential government shutdown.
The Federal Reserve's continued message of higher interest rates is expected to impact Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, with the 10-year Treasury yield predicted to experience a slight increase and the U.S. dollar expected to edge higher.
Bitcoin attempted a rally, reaching its highest price in three weeks, but quickly faced selling pressure, while the broader crypto market saw modest gains; attention turns to the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting for potential impact on monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting will focus on the central bank's expectations for key indicators such as interest rates, GDP, inflation, and unemployment, while many economists believe that the Fed may signal a pause in its rate-hiking cycle but maintain the possibility of future rate increases.
